Republican incumbent Troy Downing secured the MT-02 nomination unopposed in the June 2, 2026, primary, while Democrat Brian Miller advanced after defeating two rivals in his primary. The eastern Montana district’s R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles, including Downing’s 2024 victory, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican due to its rural character and voting patterns. A Democratic upset would require an unusually large national swing, a major scandal affecting the incumbent, or sharp shifts in turnout among key blocs—developments that remain low-probability five months before the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,400 交易量
$11,400 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
92%
民主党
7%
$11,400 交易量
$11,400 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$8,247 交易量
92%
民主党
$3,153 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Troy Downing secured the MT-02 nomination unopposed in the June 2, 2026, primary, while Democrat Brian Miller advanced after defeating two rivals in his primary. The eastern Montana district’s R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles, including Downing’s 2024 victory, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican due to its rural character and voting patterns. A Democratic upset would require an unusually large national swing, a major scandal affecting the incumbent, or sharp shifts in turnout among key blocs—developments that remain low-probability five months before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$11,400结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Troy Downing secured the MT-02 nomination unopposed in the June 2, 2026, primary, while Democrat Brian Miller advanced after defeating two rivals in his primary. The eastern Montana district’s R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles, including Downing’s 2024 victory, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican due to its rural character and voting patterns. A Democratic upset would require an unusually large national swing, a major scandal affecting the incumbent, or sharp shifts in turnout among key blocs—developments that remain low-probability five months before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,400结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Troy Downing secured the MT-02 nomination unopposed in the June 2, 2026, primary, while Democrat Brian Miller advanced after defeating two rivals in his primary. The eastern Montana district’s R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles, including Downing’s 2024 victory, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican due to its rural character and voting patterns. A Democratic upset would require an unusually large national swing, a major scandal affecting the incumbent, or sharp shifts in turnout among key blocs—developments that remain low-probability five months before the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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