The open seat created by Ryan Zinke's retirement has produced a competitive general election matchup in Montana's 1st Congressional District. Republican primary voters selected Aaron Flint as nominee on June 2, while the Democratic primary between Sam Forstag and Ryan Busse remains too close to call, injecting uncertainty into the race. With the district holding a modest Republican lean and no incumbent advantage, trader consensus reflects a tight contest driven by candidate emergence, primary turnout patterns, and early general election positioning. Key upcoming factors include fundraising reports, endorsements from state and national figures, and the first head-to-head polling that could widen or narrow the implied probabilities ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
42%
民主党
47%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
$1,011 交易量
42%
民主党
$400 交易量
47%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat created by Ryan Zinke's retirement has produced a competitive general election matchup in Montana's 1st Congressional District. Republican primary voters selected Aaron Flint as nominee on June 2, while the Democratic primary between Sam Forstag and Ryan Busse remains too close to call, injecting uncertainty into the race. With the district holding a modest Republican lean and no incumbent advantage, trader consensus reflects a tight contest driven by candidate emergence, primary turnout patterns, and early general election positioning. Key upcoming factors include fundraising reports, endorsements from state and national figures, and the first head-to-head polling that could widen or narrow the implied probabilities ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
交易量
$1,410结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat created by Ryan Zinke's retirement has produced a competitive general election matchup in Montana's 1st Congressional District. Republican primary voters selected Aaron Flint as nominee on June 2, while the Democratic primary between Sam Forstag and Ryan Busse remains too close to call, injecting uncertainty into the race. With the district holding a modest Republican lean and no incumbent advantage, trader consensus reflects a tight contest driven by candidate emergence, primary turnout patterns, and early general election positioning. Key upcoming factors include fundraising reports, endorsements from state and national figures, and the first head-to-head polling that could widen or narrow the implied probabilities ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,410结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat created by Ryan Zinke's retirement has produced a competitive general election matchup in Montana's 1st Congressional District. Republican primary voters selected Aaron Flint as nominee on June 2, while the Democratic primary between Sam Forstag and Ryan Busse remains too close to call, injecting uncertainty into the race. With the district holding a modest Republican lean and no incumbent advantage, trader consensus reflects a tight contest driven by candidate emergence, primary turnout patterns, and early general election positioning. Key upcoming factors include fundraising reports, endorsements from state and national figures, and the first head-to-head polling that could widen or narrow the implied probabilities ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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