Aaron Flint holds a clear edge in trader pricing for Montana’s open 1st congressional district seat, reflecting the district’s consistent Republican tilt in recent presidential and House voting. Flint secured the GOP nomination with strong primary support and early backing from President Trump and retiring incumbent Ryan Zinke. Recent developments include a Trump-aligned PAC’s $1.92 million ad buy in key markets and the Flint campaign’s release of documents alleging Forstag earned significant lobbying-related compensation, which Forstag’s team dismissed as misleading. Forstag, the Democratic nominee and a smokejumper backed by the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, has countered with ads emphasizing his work history while recent polls show the contest within the margin of error. The implied probability gap aligns with historical base rates for this district and the impact of outside spending ahead of the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,837 交易量
$11,837 交易量
2026-11-03
亚伦·弗林特（共和党）
64%
萨姆·福斯塔格（民主党）
36%
$11,837 交易量
$11,837 交易量
2026-11-03
亚伦·弗林特（共和党）
$6,338 交易量
64%
萨姆·福斯塔格（民主党）
$5,500 交易量
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aaron Flint holds a clear edge in trader pricing for Montana’s open 1st congressional district seat, reflecting the district’s consistent Republican tilt in recent presidential and House voting. Flint secured the GOP nomination with strong primary support and early backing from President Trump and retiring incumbent Ryan Zinke. Recent developments include a Trump-aligned PAC’s $1.92 million ad buy in key markets and the Flint campaign’s release of documents alleging Forstag earned significant lobbying-related compensation, which Forstag’s team dismissed as misleading. Forstag, the Democratic nominee and a smokejumper backed by the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, has countered with ads emphasizing his work history while recent polls show the contest within the margin of error. The implied probability gap aligns with historical base rates for this district and the impact of outside spending ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
交易量
$11,837结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aaron Flint holds a clear edge in trader pricing for Montana’s open 1st congressional district seat, reflecting the district’s consistent Republican tilt in recent presidential and House voting. Flint secured the GOP nomination with strong primary support and early backing from President Trump and retiring incumbent Ryan Zinke. Recent developments include a Trump-aligned PAC’s $1.92 million ad buy in key markets and the Flint campaign’s release of documents alleging Forstag earned significant lobbying-related compensation, which Forstag’s team dismissed as misleading. Forstag, the Democratic nominee and a smokejumper backed by the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, has countered with ads emphasizing his work history while recent polls show the contest within the margin of error. The implied probability gap aligns with historical base rates for this district and the impact of outside spending ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,837结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETAaron Flint holds a clear edge in trader pricing for Montana’s open 1st congressional district seat, reflecting the district’s consistent Republican tilt in recent presidential and House voting. Flint secured the GOP nomination with strong primary support and early backing from President Trump and retiring incumbent Ryan Zinke. Recent developments include a Trump-aligned PAC’s $1.92 million ad buy in key markets and the Flint campaign’s release of documents alleging Forstag earned significant lobbying-related compensation, which Forstag’s team dismissed as misleading. Forstag, the Democratic nominee and a smokejumper backed by the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, has countered with ads emphasizing his work history while recent polls show the contest within the margin of error. The implied probability gap aligns with historical base rates for this district and the impact of outside spending ahead of the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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