The open nature of Montana’s 1st congressional district, following incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke’s March 2026 retirement announcement, has kept the race competitive despite the district’s R+5 partisan voting index and historical Republican performance. Primaries concluded June 2, nominating radio host Aaron Flint on the Republican side and smokejumper Sam Forstag for Democrats in a contest rated Likely Republican by major forecasters. The slight edge for Republican traders reflects the seat’s structural lean and Trump endorsement of Flint, while Democratic positioning remains viable given western Montana population centers and the absence of an incumbent. Late-cycle developments such as national political conditions, candidate fundraising and visibility in the general election, or turnout patterns in key counties could widen the gap before November voting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
51%
民主党
47%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
$1,011 交易量
51%
民主党
$400 交易量
47%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open nature of Montana’s 1st congressional district, following incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke’s March 2026 retirement announcement, has kept the race competitive despite the district’s R+5 partisan voting index and historical Republican performance. Primaries concluded June 2, nominating radio host Aaron Flint on the Republican side and smokejumper Sam Forstag for Democrats in a contest rated Likely Republican by major forecasters. The slight edge for Republican traders reflects the seat’s structural lean and Trump endorsement of Flint, while Democratic positioning remains viable given western Montana population centers and the absence of an incumbent. Late-cycle developments such as national political conditions, candidate fundraising and visibility in the general election, or turnout patterns in key counties could widen the gap before November voting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
交易量
$1,410结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open nature of Montana’s 1st congressional district, following incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke’s March 2026 retirement announcement, has kept the race competitive despite the district’s R+5 partisan voting index and historical Republican performance. Primaries concluded June 2, nominating radio host Aaron Flint on the Republican side and smokejumper Sam Forstag for Democrats in a contest rated Likely Republican by major forecasters. The slight edge for Republican traders reflects the seat’s structural lean and Trump endorsement of Flint, while Democratic positioning remains viable given western Montana population centers and the absence of an incumbent. Late-cycle developments such as national political conditions, candidate fundraising and visibility in the general election, or turnout patterns in key counties could widen the gap before November voting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,410结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open nature of Montana’s 1st congressional district, following incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke’s March 2026 retirement announcement, has kept the race competitive despite the district’s R+5 partisan voting index and historical Republican performance. Primaries concluded June 2, nominating radio host Aaron Flint on the Republican side and smokejumper Sam Forstag for Democrats in a contest rated Likely Republican by major forecasters. The slight edge for Republican traders reflects the seat’s structural lean and Trump endorsement of Flint, while Democratic positioning remains viable given western Montana population centers and the absence of an incumbent. Late-cycle developments such as national political conditions, candidate fundraising and visibility in the general election, or turnout patterns in key counties could widen the gap before November voting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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