Recent approval of a Virginia ballot measure enabling Democrats to redraw congressional maps has introduced significant uncertainty into VA-01, a district with a Republican partisan voting index of R+3 that supported the Republican presidential nominee by five points in 2024. Longtime incumbent Rob Wittman faces a crowded Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, ahead of the November general election, with multiple challengers raising funds and positioning for the contest. Trader consensus reflected in current probabilities appears driven by the potential for map adjustments favoring Democrats alongside Wittman's established record and early fundraising edge, though ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Lean Republican. Upcoming primary outcomes and any court challenges to redistricting could further shift assessments before the general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$18,441 交易量
$18,441 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
63%
共和党
47%
$18,441 交易量
$18,441 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
$16,586 交易量
63%
共和党
$1,855 交易量
47%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent approval of a Virginia ballot measure enabling Democrats to redraw congressional maps has introduced significant uncertainty into VA-01, a district with a Republican partisan voting index of R+3 that supported the Republican presidential nominee by five points in 2024. Longtime incumbent Rob Wittman faces a crowded Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, ahead of the November general election, with multiple challengers raising funds and positioning for the contest. Trader consensus reflected in current probabilities appears driven by the potential for map adjustments favoring Democrats alongside Wittman's established record and early fundraising edge, though ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Lean Republican. Upcoming primary outcomes and any court challenges to redistricting could further shift assessments before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
交易量
$18,441结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent approval of a Virginia ballot measure enabling Democrats to redraw congressional maps has introduced significant uncertainty into VA-01, a district with a Republican partisan voting index of R+3 that supported the Republican presidential nominee by five points in 2024. Longtime incumbent Rob Wittman faces a crowded Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, ahead of the November general election, with multiple challengers raising funds and positioning for the contest. Trader consensus reflected in current probabilities appears driven by the potential for map adjustments favoring Democrats alongside Wittman's established record and early fundraising edge, though ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Lean Republican. Upcoming primary outcomes and any court challenges to redistricting could further shift assessments before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$18,441结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent approval of a Virginia ballot measure enabling Democrats to redraw congressional maps has introduced significant uncertainty into VA-01, a district with a Republican partisan voting index of R+3 that supported the Republican presidential nominee by five points in 2024. Longtime incumbent Rob Wittman faces a crowded Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, ahead of the November general election, with multiple challengers raising funds and positioning for the contest. Trader consensus reflected in current probabilities appears driven by the potential for map adjustments favoring Democrats alongside Wittman's established record and early fundraising edge, though ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Lean Republican. Upcoming primary outcomes and any court challenges to redistricting could further shift assessments before the general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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