The Democratic nominee holds a commanding position in California's 50th congressional district due to its strong partisan lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+16, combined with the recent June 2 primary results that advanced incumbent Democrat Scott Peters over Republican Steve Cohen for the November 3 general election. Legislatively redrawn maps under Proposition 50 further tilted the district toward Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterms. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical patterns in similarly partisan seats, where incumbency and structural advantages have consistently delivered wide margins. Late developments such as a major scandal or unforeseen national political shift remain the primary factors that could narrow the race, though both appear low-probability based on current conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$37,763 交易量
$37,763 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$37,763 交易量
$37,763 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$22,389 交易量
93%
共和党
$15,374 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee holds a commanding position in California's 50th congressional district due to its strong partisan lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+16, combined with the recent June 2 primary results that advanced incumbent Democrat Scott Peters over Republican Steve Cohen for the November 3 general election. Legislatively redrawn maps under Proposition 50 further tilted the district toward Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterms. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical patterns in similarly partisan seats, where incumbency and structural advantages have consistently delivered wide margins. Late developments such as a major scandal or unforeseen national political shift remain the primary factors that could narrow the race, though both appear low-probability based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$37,763结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee holds a commanding position in California's 50th congressional district due to its strong partisan lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+16, combined with the recent June 2 primary results that advanced incumbent Democrat Scott Peters over Republican Steve Cohen for the November 3 general election. Legislatively redrawn maps under Proposition 50 further tilted the district toward Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterms. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical patterns in similarly partisan seats, where incumbency and structural advantages have consistently delivered wide margins. Late developments such as a major scandal or unforeseen national political shift remain the primary factors that could narrow the race, though both appear low-probability based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$37,763结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic nominee holds a commanding position in California's 50th congressional district due to its strong partisan lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+16, combined with the recent June 2 primary results that advanced incumbent Democrat Scott Peters over Republican Steve Cohen for the November 3 general election. Legislatively redrawn maps under Proposition 50 further tilted the district toward Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterms. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical patterns in similarly partisan seats, where incumbency and structural advantages have consistently delivered wide margins. Late developments such as a major scandal or unforeseen national political shift remain the primary factors that could narrow the race, though both appear low-probability based on current conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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