The heavily Democratic composition of New York’s 12th congressional district, covering Manhattan’s Upper West Side, Upper East Side, and Midtown, underpins the 98.6% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Jerrold Nadler’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 23 Democratic primary delivered a decisive win for state Assembly member Micah Lasher, consolidating party support in a district with consistent high Democratic margins in prior cycles. The Republican primary produced minimal competition, leaving Caroline Shinkle as nominee with negligible visibility or fundraising. Historical turnout patterns, limited crossover appeal for Republicans, and absence of major scandals or national shifts capable of altering the local balance sustain the current pricing. A late national Republican surge or unforeseen candidate withdrawal could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural factors make such reversals improbable before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$32,659 交易量
$32,659 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
99%
共和党
<1%
$32,659 交易量
$32,659 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$17,205 交易量
99%
共和党
$15,454 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of New York’s 12th congressional district, covering Manhattan’s Upper West Side, Upper East Side, and Midtown, underpins the 98.6% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Jerrold Nadler’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 23 Democratic primary delivered a decisive win for state Assembly member Micah Lasher, consolidating party support in a district with consistent high Democratic margins in prior cycles. The Republican primary produced minimal competition, leaving Caroline Shinkle as nominee with negligible visibility or fundraising. Historical turnout patterns, limited crossover appeal for Republicans, and absence of major scandals or national shifts capable of altering the local balance sustain the current pricing. A late national Republican surge or unforeseen candidate withdrawal could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural factors make such reversals improbable before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$32,659结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of New York’s 12th congressional district, covering Manhattan’s Upper West Side, Upper East Side, and Midtown, underpins the 98.6% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Jerrold Nadler’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 23 Democratic primary delivered a decisive win for state Assembly member Micah Lasher, consolidating party support in a district with consistent high Democratic margins in prior cycles. The Republican primary produced minimal competition, leaving Caroline Shinkle as nominee with negligible visibility or fundraising. Historical turnout patterns, limited crossover appeal for Republicans, and absence of major scandals or national shifts capable of altering the local balance sustain the current pricing. A late national Republican surge or unforeseen candidate withdrawal could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural factors make such reversals improbable before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,659结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic composition of New York’s 12th congressional district, covering Manhattan’s Upper West Side, Upper East Side, and Midtown, underpins the 98.6% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Jerrold Nadler’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 23 Democratic primary delivered a decisive win for state Assembly member Micah Lasher, consolidating party support in a district with consistent high Democratic margins in prior cycles. The Republican primary produced minimal competition, leaving Caroline Shinkle as nominee with negligible visibility or fundraising. Historical turnout patterns, limited crossover appeal for Republicans, and absence of major scandals or national shifts capable of altering the local balance sustain the current pricing. A late national Republican surge or unforeseen candidate withdrawal could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural factors make such reversals improbable before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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