Adelita Grijalva’s incumbency in Arizona’s 7th District underpins the Democratic Party’s 93.5% implied probability in the 2026 House race. The majority-Hispanic district delivered her a 68.9% special-election victory in 2025 following her father’s death, and nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. The district’s partisan voting index favors Democrats by double digits, limiting Republican nominee Daniel Butierez’s path despite his primary win. With primaries scheduled for July 21 and the general election on November 3, traders see few near-term catalysts that would shift the balance unless a major scandal, health event, or national wave alters fundamentals before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$12,503 交易量
$12,503 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$12,503 交易量
$12,503 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$4,596 交易量
94%
共和党
$7,907 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva’s incumbency in Arizona’s 7th District underpins the Democratic Party’s 93.5% implied probability in the 2026 House race. The majority-Hispanic district delivered her a 68.9% special-election victory in 2025 following her father’s death, and nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. The district’s partisan voting index favors Democrats by double digits, limiting Republican nominee Daniel Butierez’s path despite his primary win. With primaries scheduled for July 21 and the general election on November 3, traders see few near-term catalysts that would shift the balance unless a major scandal, health event, or national wave alters fundamentals before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$12,503结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva’s incumbency in Arizona’s 7th District underpins the Democratic Party’s 93.5% implied probability in the 2026 House race. The majority-Hispanic district delivered her a 68.9% special-election victory in 2025 following her father’s death, and nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. The district’s partisan voting index favors Democrats by double digits, limiting Republican nominee Daniel Butierez’s path despite his primary win. With primaries scheduled for July 21 and the general election on November 3, traders see few near-term catalysts that would shift the balance unless a major scandal, health event, or national wave alters fundamentals before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,503结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Adelita Grijalva’s incumbency in Arizona’s 7th District underpins the Democratic Party’s 93.5% implied probability in the 2026 House race. The majority-Hispanic district delivered her a 68.9% special-election victory in 2025 following her father’s death, and nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. The district’s partisan voting index favors Democrats by double digits, limiting Republican nominee Daniel Butierez’s path despite his primary win. With primaries scheduled for July 21 and the general election on November 3, traders see few near-term catalysts that would shift the balance unless a major scandal, health event, or national wave alters fundamentals before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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