Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal secured the top spot in the June 2, 2026, California primary with roughly 54 percent of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Bob Smith to the November general election. The district, covering Santa Barbara County and portions of San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties, has shown consistent Democratic support in recent cycles, including Carbajal’s 2024 victory margin exceeding 24 points. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on voter registration patterns, historical results, and the absence of significant primary opposition. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural advantages, though a sharp national partisan shift or unforeseen candidate developments could narrow the margin before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$17,919 交易量
$17,919 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$17,919 交易量
$17,919 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$10,034 交易量
94%
共和党
$7,884 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal secured the top spot in the June 2, 2026, California primary with roughly 54 percent of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Bob Smith to the November general election. The district, covering Santa Barbara County and portions of San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties, has shown consistent Democratic support in recent cycles, including Carbajal’s 2024 victory margin exceeding 24 points. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on voter registration patterns, historical results, and the absence of significant primary opposition. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural advantages, though a sharp national partisan shift or unforeseen candidate developments could narrow the margin before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$17,919结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal secured the top spot in the June 2, 2026, California primary with roughly 54 percent of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Bob Smith to the November general election. The district, covering Santa Barbara County and portions of San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties, has shown consistent Democratic support in recent cycles, including Carbajal’s 2024 victory margin exceeding 24 points. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on voter registration patterns, historical results, and the absence of significant primary opposition. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural advantages, though a sharp national partisan shift or unforeseen candidate developments could narrow the margin before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$17,919结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal secured the top spot in the June 2, 2026, California primary with roughly 54 percent of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Bob Smith to the November general election. The district, covering Santa Barbara County and portions of San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties, has shown consistent Democratic support in recent cycles, including Carbajal’s 2024 victory margin exceeding 24 points. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on voter registration patterns, historical results, and the absence of significant primary opposition. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural advantages, though a sharp national partisan shift or unforeseen candidate developments could narrow the margin before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题