Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding lead in California's 24th congressional district heading into the November general election, consistent with the market's 93.5% Democratic consensus. The central coast district, encompassing Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, has favored Democrats in recent cycles, including Carbajal's 2024 reelection by over 25 points. He advanced from the June 2 primary without significant opposition, while the Republican nominee faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and historical turnout patterns. Trader pricing reflects the limited path for a Republican upset absent major unforeseen developments such as a late scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or sharp national political shift before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$17,920 交易量
$17,920 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$17,920 交易量
$17,920 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$10,034 交易量
94%
共和党
$7,885 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding lead in California's 24th congressional district heading into the November general election, consistent with the market's 93.5% Democratic consensus. The central coast district, encompassing Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, has favored Democrats in recent cycles, including Carbajal's 2024 reelection by over 25 points. He advanced from the June 2 primary without significant opposition, while the Republican nominee faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and historical turnout patterns. Trader pricing reflects the limited path for a Republican upset absent major unforeseen developments such as a late scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or sharp national political shift before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$17,920结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding lead in California's 24th congressional district heading into the November general election, consistent with the market's 93.5% Democratic consensus. The central coast district, encompassing Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, has favored Democrats in recent cycles, including Carbajal's 2024 reelection by over 25 points. He advanced from the June 2 primary without significant opposition, while the Republican nominee faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and historical turnout patterns. Trader pricing reflects the limited path for a Republican upset absent major unforeseen developments such as a late scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or sharp national political shift before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$17,920结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding lead in California's 24th congressional district heading into the November general election, consistent with the market's 93.5% Democratic consensus. The central coast district, encompassing Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, has favored Democrats in recent cycles, including Carbajal's 2024 reelection by over 25 points. He advanced from the June 2 primary without significant opposition, while the Republican nominee faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and historical turnout patterns. Trader pricing reflects the limited path for a Republican upset absent major unforeseen developments such as a late scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or sharp national political shift before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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