Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 1st congressional district due to the area’s established partisan lean, reflected in recent presidential results favoring Democrats by double digits, combined with his long tenure and unopposed primary win. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Damon Galdo. This baseline drives the 93.5% implied probability in the market, consistent with historical patterns in the South Jersey suburban district. Realistic shifts remain possible from late-breaking developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or unusually strong national partisan waves that alter turnout.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$43,899 交易量
$43,899 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$43,899 交易量
$43,899 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$26,971 交易量
94%
共和党
$16,928 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 1st congressional district due to the area’s established partisan lean, reflected in recent presidential results favoring Democrats by double digits, combined with his long tenure and unopposed primary win. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Damon Galdo. This baseline drives the 93.5% implied probability in the market, consistent with historical patterns in the South Jersey suburban district. Realistic shifts remain possible from late-breaking developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or unusually strong national partisan waves that alter turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$43,899结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 1st congressional district due to the area’s established partisan lean, reflected in recent presidential results favoring Democrats by double digits, combined with his long tenure and unopposed primary win. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Damon Galdo. This baseline drives the 93.5% implied probability in the market, consistent with historical patterns in the South Jersey suburban district. Realistic shifts remain possible from late-breaking developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or unusually strong national partisan waves that alter turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$43,899结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Donald Norcross holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 1st congressional district due to the area’s established partisan lean, reflected in recent presidential results favoring Democrats by double digits, combined with his long tenure and unopposed primary win. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Damon Galdo. This baseline drives the 93.5% implied probability in the market, consistent with historical patterns in the South Jersey suburban district. Realistic shifts remain possible from late-breaking developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or unusually strong national partisan waves that alter turnout.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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