The 2026 Quebec general election on October 5 features an open seat in Richmond after incumbent CAQ MNA André Bachand opted not to run. Strong local candidates from five major parties have produced a competitive race, with projections from 338Canada and Qc125 showing narrow margins among the CAQ’s Guillaume Rousseau, the Liberals’ Hugo Fontaine, the PQ’s Bernard Sévigny, the Conservatives’ Dominic Bouffard, and Québec solidaire’s David Poulin-Latulippe. Candidate announcements through spring and summer, combined with boundary changes and early provincial polling volatility, have kept implied probabilities tightly clustered near 50 percent. Further movement could follow the September 17 nomination deadline, regional debates, or shifts in voter turnout among Estrie’s mixed urban-rural electorate.