Claude Reid, the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec MNA for Beauharnois since 2018, holds the highest implied probability at 62.5% as traders weigh his established local profile and the riding’s recent CAQ majorities against a shifting provincial landscape. Alexandre Daneau of the Parti Québécois follows at 36%, reflecting PQ momentum in Montérégie projections and a competitive toss-up dynamic per recent 338Canada and Qc125 models that assign CAQ roughly two-thirds odds of holding the seat. Lower probabilities for Charles Royer Tremblay (Liberal, 3.5%) and Angélika Homère (Conservateur, 1.4%) align with those parties’ weaker redistributed 2022 baselines and limited recent polling visibility. The October 5, 2026, general election date and completed candidate nominations have anchored current trader consensus around incumbency and regional vote-share trends rather than late surprises.