Labour's projected vote share in the October 8 by-election sits in the 35-45% range according to trader consensus, reflecting a tight contest after Keir Starmer's September 1 resignation. Recent Camden local election results showed Labour on roughly 38-39% and the Greens at 28-29%, with Zack Polanski's candidacy and Andrew Feinstein's endorsement consolidating opposition support on the left. Andy Burnham's leadership has provided some national tailwinds for Labour, while the presence of 15 candidates and typical by-election turnout patterns introduce volatility. These dynamics leave room for shifts depending on final campaign momentum and voter mobilization in the constituency.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于40-45% 33%
35-40% 22%
45-50% 18%
50%及以上 17%
最新
最新
2026-10-08
少于30%
11%
30-35%
12%
35-40%
22%
40-45%
33%
45-50%
18%
50%及以上
17%
40-45% 33%
35-40% 22%
45-50% 18%
50%及以上 17%
最新
最新
2026-10-08
少于30%
$77 交易量
11%
30-35%
$76 交易量
12%
35-40%
$87 交易量
22%
40-45%
$232 交易量
33%
45-50%
$116 交易量
18%
50%及以上
$208 交易量
17%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's projected vote share in the October 8 by-election sits in the 35-45% range according to trader consensus, reflecting a tight contest after Keir Starmer's September 1 resignation. Recent Camden local election results showed Labour on roughly 38-39% and the Greens at 28-29%, with Zack Polanski's candidacy and Andrew Feinstein's endorsement consolidating opposition support on the left. Andy Burnham's leadership has provided some national tailwinds for Labour, while the presence of 15 candidates and typical by-election turnout patterns introduce volatility. These dynamics leave room for shifts depending on final campaign momentum and voter mobilization in the constituency.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
市场开放时间： Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
交易量
$796结束日期
2026-10-08市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETA by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's projected vote share in the October 8 by-election sits in the 35-45% range according to trader consensus, reflecting a tight contest after Keir Starmer's September 1 resignation. Recent Camden local election results showed Labour on roughly 38-39% and the Greens at 28-29%, with Zack Polanski's candidacy and Andrew Feinstein's endorsement consolidating opposition support on the left. Andy Burnham's leadership has provided some national tailwinds for Labour, while the presence of 15 candidates and typical by-election turnout patterns introduce volatility. These dynamics leave room for shifts depending on final campaign momentum and voter mobilization in the constituency.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
交易量
$796结束日期
2026-10-08市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETLabour's projected vote share in the October 8 by-election sits in the 35-45% range according to trader consensus, reflecting a tight contest after Keir Starmer's September 1 resignation. Recent Camden local election results showed Labour on roughly 38-39% and the Greens at 28-29%, with Zack Polanski's candidacy and Andrew Feinstein's endorsement consolidating opposition support on the left. Andy Burnham's leadership has provided some national tailwinds for Labour, while the presence of 15 candidates and typical by-election turnout patterns introduce volatility. These dynamics leave room for shifts depending on final campaign momentum and voter mobilization in the constituency.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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