The Illinois 3rd congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+17 and the incumbent’s 67 percent vote share in 2024, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Delia Ramirez secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition in March 2026, while the Republican nominee advanced through an uncontested primary, limiting early visibility and fundraising for the challenger. The district’s urban and suburban Chicago footprint, combined with consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, reinforces the wide implied probability gap ahead of the November general election. Late developments that could narrow this margin include a major scandal affecting the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican environment, or unexpected shifts in turnout among key voting blocs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$36,475 交易量
$36,475 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
2%
$36,475 交易量
$36,475 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$14,891 交易量
94%
共和党
$21,585 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 3rd congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+17 and the incumbent’s 67 percent vote share in 2024, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Delia Ramirez secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition in March 2026, while the Republican nominee advanced through an uncontested primary, limiting early visibility and fundraising for the challenger. The district’s urban and suburban Chicago footprint, combined with consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, reinforces the wide implied probability gap ahead of the November general election. Late developments that could narrow this margin include a major scandal affecting the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican environment, or unexpected shifts in turnout among key voting blocs.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$36,475结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 3rd congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+17 and the incumbent’s 67 percent vote share in 2024, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Delia Ramirez secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition in March 2026, while the Republican nominee advanced through an uncontested primary, limiting early visibility and fundraising for the challenger. The district’s urban and suburban Chicago footprint, combined with consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, reinforces the wide implied probability gap ahead of the November general election. Late developments that could narrow this margin include a major scandal affecting the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican environment, or unexpected shifts in turnout among key voting blocs.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$36,475结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 3rd congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+17 and the incumbent’s 67 percent vote share in 2024, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Delia Ramirez secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition in March 2026, while the Republican nominee advanced through an uncontested primary, limiting early visibility and fundraising for the challenger. The district’s urban and suburban Chicago footprint, combined with consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, reinforces the wide implied probability gap ahead of the November general election. Late developments that could narrow this margin include a major scandal affecting the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican environment, or unexpected shifts in turnout among key voting blocs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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