Virginia's 5th congressional district remains anchored by a Republican lean, reflected in its R+6 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024. Incumbent John McGuire, first elected in 2024, faces a Republican primary challenge from Melanie Lucero ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democrats including former Representative Tom Perriello and Suzanne Krzyzanowski compete on their side. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, consistent with the district's voting patterns in recent cycles and the absence of major redistricting changes for 2026. Trader consensus on a Republican hold aligns with these structural factors and limited signs of a Democratic surge in this rural and suburban central Virginia seat.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$55,574 交易量
$55,574 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
75%
民主党
27%
$55,574 交易量
$55,574 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$26,675 交易量
75%
民主党
$28,900 交易量
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Virginia's 5th congressional district remains anchored by a Republican lean, reflected in its R+6 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024. Incumbent John McGuire, first elected in 2024, faces a Republican primary challenge from Melanie Lucero ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democrats including former Representative Tom Perriello and Suzanne Krzyzanowski compete on their side. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, consistent with the district's voting patterns in recent cycles and the absence of major redistricting changes for 2026. Trader consensus on a Republican hold aligns with these structural factors and limited signs of a Democratic surge in this rural and suburban central Virginia seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$55,574结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Virginia's 5th congressional district remains anchored by a Republican lean, reflected in its R+6 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024. Incumbent John McGuire, first elected in 2024, faces a Republican primary challenge from Melanie Lucero ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democrats including former Representative Tom Perriello and Suzanne Krzyzanowski compete on their side. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, consistent with the district's voting patterns in recent cycles and the absence of major redistricting changes for 2026. Trader consensus on a Republican hold aligns with these structural factors and limited signs of a Democratic surge in this rural and suburban central Virginia seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$55,574结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Virginia's 5th congressional district remains anchored by a Republican lean, reflected in its R+6 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024. Incumbent John McGuire, first elected in 2024, faces a Republican primary challenge from Melanie Lucero ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democrats including former Representative Tom Perriello and Suzanne Krzyzanowski compete on their side. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, consistent with the district's voting patterns in recent cycles and the absence of major redistricting changes for 2026. Trader consensus on a Republican hold aligns with these structural factors and limited signs of a Democratic surge in this rural and suburban central Virginia seat.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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