Recent redistricting has shifted California's 1st congressional district toward a Democratic lean, reflected in forecaster ratings of solid or safe Democratic territory ahead of the November general election. The June 2 primary advanced Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire and Republican state Assemblyman James Gallagher as the top two candidates, setting up a contest where the district's voter registration edge and historical patterns favor the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory, consistent with the seat's transformed electoral math. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unusually high Republican turnout in rural areas, unexpected national political shifts, or late-campaign developments affecting either candidate's performance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$23,580 交易量
$23,580 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
5%
$23,580 交易量
$23,580 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$15,664 交易量
93%
共和党
$7,916 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent redistricting has shifted California's 1st congressional district toward a Democratic lean, reflected in forecaster ratings of solid or safe Democratic territory ahead of the November general election. The June 2 primary advanced Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire and Republican state Assemblyman James Gallagher as the top two candidates, setting up a contest where the district's voter registration edge and historical patterns favor the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory, consistent with the seat's transformed electoral math. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unusually high Republican turnout in rural areas, unexpected national political shifts, or late-campaign developments affecting either candidate's performance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$23,580结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent redistricting has shifted California's 1st congressional district toward a Democratic lean, reflected in forecaster ratings of solid or safe Democratic territory ahead of the November general election. The June 2 primary advanced Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire and Republican state Assemblyman James Gallagher as the top two candidates, setting up a contest where the district's voter registration edge and historical patterns favor the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory, consistent with the seat's transformed electoral math. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unusually high Republican turnout in rural areas, unexpected national political shifts, or late-campaign developments affecting either candidate's performance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,580结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent redistricting has shifted California's 1st congressional district toward a Democratic lean, reflected in forecaster ratings of solid or safe Democratic territory ahead of the November general election. The June 2 primary advanced Democratic state Senator Mike McGuire and Republican state Assemblyman James Gallagher as the top two candidates, setting up a contest where the district's voter registration edge and historical patterns favor the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory, consistent with the seat's transformed electoral math. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unusually high Republican turnout in rural areas, unexpected national political shifts, or late-campaign developments affecting either candidate's performance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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