Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st congressional district to a D+7 partisan voter index, creating a structurally Democratic-leaning seat that analysts at the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate as solid or safe Democratic. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire advanced to the November 3 general election, with McGuire positioned to benefit from the new boundaries and consolidated Democratic support. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% Democratic probability incorporates these fundamentals along with historical base rates for similarly rated districts. A Republican victory would require unusually high GOP turnout or a major late-cycle development capable of overcoming the district’s altered composition.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$35,032 交易量
$35,032 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
97%
共和党
2%
$35,032 交易量
$35,032 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$26,310 交易量
97%
共和党
$8,722 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st congressional district to a D+7 partisan voter index, creating a structurally Democratic-leaning seat that analysts at the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate as solid or safe Democratic. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire advanced to the November 3 general election, with McGuire positioned to benefit from the new boundaries and consolidated Democratic support. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% Democratic probability incorporates these fundamentals along with historical base rates for similarly rated districts. A Republican victory would require unusually high GOP turnout or a major late-cycle development capable of overcoming the district’s altered composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$35,032结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st congressional district to a D+7 partisan voter index, creating a structurally Democratic-leaning seat that analysts at the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate as solid or safe Democratic. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire advanced to the November 3 general election, with McGuire positioned to benefit from the new boundaries and consolidated Democratic support. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% Democratic probability incorporates these fundamentals along with historical base rates for similarly rated districts. A Republican victory would require unusually high GOP turnout or a major late-cycle development capable of overcoming the district’s altered composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$35,032结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRedistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st congressional district to a D+7 partisan voter index, creating a structurally Democratic-leaning seat that analysts at the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate as solid or safe Democratic. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire advanced to the November 3 general election, with McGuire positioned to benefit from the new boundaries and consolidated Democratic support. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% Democratic probability incorporates these fundamentals along with historical base rates for similarly rated districts. A Republican victory would require unusually high GOP turnout or a major late-cycle development capable of overcoming the district’s altered composition.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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