Redistricting under Proposition 50 has shifted California's 1st Congressional District from a solidly Republican seat to one with a modest Democratic lean, reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the November 3, 2026 general election as solid or safe for Democrats. The June 2 primary advanced Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire to the general ballot, yet trader pricing assigns the Democratic nominee a commanding 92.5% implied probability. This positioning aligns with the district's updated voter composition and historical patterns in similarly reconfigured California seats. A Republican victory would require substantial shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, national political conditions favoring the party, or significant underperformance by the Democratic candidate between now and election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$23,578 交易量
$23,578 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
5%
$23,578 交易量
$23,578 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$15,662 交易量
93%
共和党
$7,916 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 has shifted California's 1st Congressional District from a solidly Republican seat to one with a modest Democratic lean, reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the November 3, 2026 general election as solid or safe for Democrats. The June 2 primary advanced Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire to the general ballot, yet trader pricing assigns the Democratic nominee a commanding 92.5% implied probability. This positioning aligns with the district's updated voter composition and historical patterns in similarly reconfigured California seats. A Republican victory would require substantial shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, national political conditions favoring the party, or significant underperformance by the Democratic candidate between now and election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$23,578结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 has shifted California's 1st Congressional District from a solidly Republican seat to one with a modest Democratic lean, reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the November 3, 2026 general election as solid or safe for Democrats. The June 2 primary advanced Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire to the general ballot, yet trader pricing assigns the Democratic nominee a commanding 92.5% implied probability. This positioning aligns with the district's updated voter composition and historical patterns in similarly reconfigured California seats. A Republican victory would require substantial shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, national political conditions favoring the party, or significant underperformance by the Democratic candidate between now and election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,578结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 has shifted California's 1st Congressional District from a solidly Republican seat to one with a modest Democratic lean, reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the November 3, 2026 general election as solid or safe for Democrats. The June 2 primary advanced Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire to the general ballot, yet trader pricing assigns the Democratic nominee a commanding 92.5% implied probability. This positioning aligns with the district's updated voter composition and historical patterns in similarly reconfigured California seats. A Republican victory would require substantial shifts in turnout among key voting blocs, national political conditions favoring the party, or significant underperformance by the Democratic candidate between now and election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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