Incumbent Republican French Hill holds a strong position in Arkansas’s 2nd congressional district, a seat that favored Donald Trump by 8.5 points in 2024 and carries a Republican tilt reflected in most election forecasters’ Solid or Likely Republican ratings. Traders assign Hill an 81.5% implied probability largely because of his long tenure as chair of the House Financial Services Committee, superior fundraising, and the district’s structural Republican advantage despite a single August 2026 poll showing Democrat Chris Jones narrowly ahead. Jones, a nuclear engineer and 2022 gubernatorial nominee, secured the Democratic nomination easily and received an endorsement from Kamala Harris along with DCCC “in play” status, yet these factors have not overcome the incumbent’s edge in broader modeling. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$24,403 交易量
$24,403 交易量
2026-11-03
French Hill（共和党）
82%
克里斯·琼斯（民主党）
17%
$24,403 交易量
$24,403 交易量
2026-11-03
French Hill（共和党）
$10,591 交易量
82%
克里斯·琼斯（民主党）
$13,812 交易量
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill holds a strong position in Arkansas’s 2nd congressional district, a seat that favored Donald Trump by 8.5 points in 2024 and carries a Republican tilt reflected in most election forecasters’ Solid or Likely Republican ratings. Traders assign Hill an 81.5% implied probability largely because of his long tenure as chair of the House Financial Services Committee, superior fundraising, and the district’s structural Republican advantage despite a single August 2026 poll showing Democrat Chris Jones narrowly ahead. Jones, a nuclear engineer and 2022 gubernatorial nominee, secured the Democratic nomination easily and received an endorsement from Kamala Harris along with DCCC “in play” status, yet these factors have not overcome the incumbent’s edge in broader modeling. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$24,403结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill holds a strong position in Arkansas’s 2nd congressional district, a seat that favored Donald Trump by 8.5 points in 2024 and carries a Republican tilt reflected in most election forecasters’ Solid or Likely Republican ratings. Traders assign Hill an 81.5% implied probability largely because of his long tenure as chair of the House Financial Services Committee, superior fundraising, and the district’s structural Republican advantage despite a single August 2026 poll showing Democrat Chris Jones narrowly ahead. Jones, a nuclear engineer and 2022 gubernatorial nominee, secured the Democratic nomination easily and received an endorsement from Kamala Harris along with DCCC “in play” status, yet these factors have not overcome the incumbent’s edge in broader modeling. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$24,403结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETIncumbent Republican French Hill holds a strong position in Arkansas’s 2nd congressional district, a seat that favored Donald Trump by 8.5 points in 2024 and carries a Republican tilt reflected in most election forecasters’ Solid or Likely Republican ratings. Traders assign Hill an 81.5% implied probability largely because of his long tenure as chair of the House Financial Services Committee, superior fundraising, and the district’s structural Republican advantage despite a single August 2026 poll showing Democrat Chris Jones narrowly ahead. Jones, a nuclear engineer and 2022 gubernatorial nominee, secured the Democratic nomination easily and received an endorsement from Kamala Harris along with DCCC “in play” status, yet these factors have not overcome the incumbent’s edge in broader modeling. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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