Incumbent Republican French Hill secured renomination in the March 2026 primary and will face Democrat Chris Jones in the November general election for Arkansas’s 2nd congressional district. The seat carries an R+8 partisan voting index and has remained in Republican hands for over a decade following post-2020 redistricting that reduced its competitiveness around Little Rock. Hill’s 2024 general-election margin of nearly 59 percent and the district’s consistent Republican performance underpin trader consensus reflected in the 87 percent probability assigned to the Republican Party. Jones, the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, offers the main opposition but faces structural headwinds typical of the district’s voting patterns. No major developments in the past month have altered the established positioning ahead of the fall campaign.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
87%
民主党
12%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$2,322 交易量
87%
民主党
$5,930 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill secured renomination in the March 2026 primary and will face Democrat Chris Jones in the November general election for Arkansas’s 2nd congressional district. The seat carries an R+8 partisan voting index and has remained in Republican hands for over a decade following post-2020 redistricting that reduced its competitiveness around Little Rock. Hill’s 2024 general-election margin of nearly 59 percent and the district’s consistent Republican performance underpin trader consensus reflected in the 87 percent probability assigned to the Republican Party. Jones, the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, offers the main opposition but faces structural headwinds typical of the district’s voting patterns. No major developments in the past month have altered the established positioning ahead of the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$8,252结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill secured renomination in the March 2026 primary and will face Democrat Chris Jones in the November general election for Arkansas’s 2nd congressional district. The seat carries an R+8 partisan voting index and has remained in Republican hands for over a decade following post-2020 redistricting that reduced its competitiveness around Little Rock. Hill’s 2024 general-election margin of nearly 59 percent and the district’s consistent Republican performance underpin trader consensus reflected in the 87 percent probability assigned to the Republican Party. Jones, the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, offers the main opposition but faces structural headwinds typical of the district’s voting patterns. No major developments in the past month have altered the established positioning ahead of the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,252结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican French Hill secured renomination in the March 2026 primary and will face Democrat Chris Jones in the November general election for Arkansas’s 2nd congressional district. The seat carries an R+8 partisan voting index and has remained in Republican hands for over a decade following post-2020 redistricting that reduced its competitiveness around Little Rock. Hill’s 2024 general-election margin of nearly 59 percent and the district’s consistent Republican performance underpin trader consensus reflected in the 87 percent probability assigned to the Republican Party. Jones, the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, offers the main opposition but faces structural headwinds typical of the district’s voting patterns. No major developments in the past month have altered the established positioning ahead of the fall campaign.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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