Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford’s long tenure since 2011 and the district’s consistent conservative lean in northeastern Arkansas underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The seat’s Solid Republican rating reflects its rural character, past results including Crawford’s 72.9 percent share in 2024, and the absence of contested primaries after only one major-party candidate filed per side. The Democratic nominee, Terri Yarbrough Green, faces structural headwinds typical of the district. Factors that could narrow the margin include an unforeseen national political shift, a significant scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though historical patterns indicate limited near-term impact on the overall probability assessment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$18,782 交易量
$18,782 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
93%
民主党
6%
$18,782 交易量
$18,782 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$11,183 交易量
93%
民主党
$7,599 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford’s long tenure since 2011 and the district’s consistent conservative lean in northeastern Arkansas underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The seat’s Solid Republican rating reflects its rural character, past results including Crawford’s 72.9 percent share in 2024, and the absence of contested primaries after only one major-party candidate filed per side. The Democratic nominee, Terri Yarbrough Green, faces structural headwinds typical of the district. Factors that could narrow the margin include an unforeseen national political shift, a significant scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though historical patterns indicate limited near-term impact on the overall probability assessment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$18,782结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford’s long tenure since 2011 and the district’s consistent conservative lean in northeastern Arkansas underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The seat’s Solid Republican rating reflects its rural character, past results including Crawford’s 72.9 percent share in 2024, and the absence of contested primaries after only one major-party candidate filed per side. The Democratic nominee, Terri Yarbrough Green, faces structural headwinds typical of the district. Factors that could narrow the margin include an unforeseen national political shift, a significant scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though historical patterns indicate limited near-term impact on the overall probability assessment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$18,782结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford’s long tenure since 2011 and the district’s consistent conservative lean in northeastern Arkansas underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. The seat’s Solid Republican rating reflects its rural character, past results including Crawford’s 72.9 percent share in 2024, and the absence of contested primaries after only one major-party candidate filed per side. The Democratic nominee, Terri Yarbrough Green, faces structural headwinds typical of the district. Factors that could narrow the margin include an unforeseen national political shift, a significant scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though historical patterns indicate limited near-term impact on the overall probability assessment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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