Incumbent Democrat John Mannion holds a commanding position in New York’s 22nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring a Democratic outcome at 92 percent. The district’s partisan voting index shows a modest Democratic lean, and Mannion secured the seat in 2024 with 54.6 percent of the vote before advancing unopposed through the canceled Democratic primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Likely Democratic, citing limited Republican competition from nominee Kailee Buller and Mannion’s established fundraising and institutional support. The absence of major polling shifts or high-profile challenges has reinforced this positioning. A late national political wave, significant fundraising disparity reversal, or unexpected personal or legal developments involving the incumbent remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$21,795 交易量
$21,795 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
$21,795 交易量
$21,795 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
$10,777 交易量
92%
共和党
$11,017 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat John Mannion holds a commanding position in New York’s 22nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring a Democratic outcome at 92 percent. The district’s partisan voting index shows a modest Democratic lean, and Mannion secured the seat in 2024 with 54.6 percent of the vote before advancing unopposed through the canceled Democratic primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Likely Democratic, citing limited Republican competition from nominee Kailee Buller and Mannion’s established fundraising and institutional support. The absence of major polling shifts or high-profile challenges has reinforced this positioning. A late national political wave, significant fundraising disparity reversal, or unexpected personal or legal developments involving the incumbent remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
交易量
$21,795结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat John Mannion holds a commanding position in New York’s 22nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring a Democratic outcome at 92 percent. The district’s partisan voting index shows a modest Democratic lean, and Mannion secured the seat in 2024 with 54.6 percent of the vote before advancing unopposed through the canceled Democratic primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Likely Democratic, citing limited Republican competition from nominee Kailee Buller and Mannion’s established fundraising and institutional support. The absence of major polling shifts or high-profile challenges has reinforced this positioning. A late national political wave, significant fundraising disparity reversal, or unexpected personal or legal developments involving the incumbent remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$21,795结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat John Mannion holds a commanding position in New York’s 22nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring a Democratic outcome at 92 percent. The district’s partisan voting index shows a modest Democratic lean, and Mannion secured the seat in 2024 with 54.6 percent of the vote before advancing unopposed through the canceled Democratic primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Likely Democratic, citing limited Republican competition from nominee Kailee Buller and Mannion’s established fundraising and institutional support. The absence of major polling shifts or high-profile challenges has reinforced this positioning. A late national political wave, significant fundraising disparity reversal, or unexpected personal or legal developments involving the incumbent remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题