Putin’s regime has reinforced internal controls through expanded FSB counterintelligence operations, National Guard enhancements with heavy weaponry, and elite reshuffles that tie senior figures more tightly to the Kremlin, reducing the scope for coordinated challenges. Ongoing pressures from the Ukraine conflict, including drone strikes on energy infrastructure and regional protest sentiment, have prompted asset shifts by some oligarchs and public elite impatience, yet these have not translated into organized plots or defections. Historical patterns of Russian leadership transitions, combined with the absence of verifiable military or security service fractures since the 2023 Wagner episode, underpin trader assessments that a 2026 coup attempt remains unlikely absent sudden health or battlefield shocks capable of fracturing the current consolidation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6% 概率
$131,111 交易量
$131,111 交易量
2026-12-31
6% 概率
$131,111 交易量
$131,111 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin’s regime has reinforced internal controls through expanded FSB counterintelligence operations, National Guard enhancements with heavy weaponry, and elite reshuffles that tie senior figures more tightly to the Kremlin, reducing the scope for coordinated challenges. Ongoing pressures from the Ukraine conflict, including drone strikes on energy infrastructure and regional protest sentiment, have prompted asset shifts by some oligarchs and public elite impatience, yet these have not translated into organized plots or defections. Historical patterns of Russian leadership transitions, combined with the absence of verifiable military or security service fractures since the 2023 Wagner episode, underpin trader assessments that a 2026 coup attempt remains unlikely absent sudden health or battlefield shocks capable of fracturing the current consolidation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
交易量
$131,111结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin’s regime has reinforced internal controls through expanded FSB counterintelligence operations, National Guard enhancements with heavy weaponry, and elite reshuffles that tie senior figures more tightly to the Kremlin, reducing the scope for coordinated challenges. Ongoing pressures from the Ukraine conflict, including drone strikes on energy infrastructure and regional protest sentiment, have prompted asset shifts by some oligarchs and public elite impatience, yet these have not translated into organized plots or defections. Historical patterns of Russian leadership transitions, combined with the absence of verifiable military or security service fractures since the 2023 Wagner episode, underpin trader assessments that a 2026 coup attempt remains unlikely absent sudden health or battlefield shocks capable of fracturing the current consolidation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$131,111结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETPutin’s regime has reinforced internal controls through expanded FSB counterintelligence operations, National Guard enhancements with heavy weaponry, and elite reshuffles that tie senior figures more tightly to the Kremlin, reducing the scope for coordinated challenges. Ongoing pressures from the Ukraine conflict, including drone strikes on energy infrastructure and regional protest sentiment, have prompted asset shifts by some oligarchs and public elite impatience, yet these have not translated into organized plots or defections. Historical patterns of Russian leadership transitions, combined with the absence of verifiable military or security service fractures since the 2023 Wagner episode, underpin trader assessments that a 2026 coup attempt remains unlikely absent sudden health or battlefield shocks capable of fracturing the current consolidation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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