**No at 94.5% reflects the absence of active operations or conditions pointing to another capture of a sitting UN-member head of state by year-end.** The January 2026 U.S. special forces raid that detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro established the narrow resolution criteria: direct U.S. personnel involvement on the ground resulting in physical custody of a qualifying leader. Subsequent U.S. actions, including airstrikes on Iranian leadership and counter-narcotics operations in Latin America and Nigeria, have produced no comparable detentions of additional heads of state. With roughly three months remaining and no publicly confirmed indictments, intelligence alignments, or diplomatic setups targeting other leaders, traders price a repeat event as unlikely. Historical precedent shows such captures are exceptional and depend on specific legal, intelligence, and operational convergence that has not materialized for any other target.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
6% 概率
$81,403 交易量
$81,403 交易量
2026-12-31
是
6% 概率
$81,403 交易量
$81,403 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**No at 94.5% reflects the absence of active operations or conditions pointing to another capture of a sitting UN-member head of state by year-end.**
The January 2026 U.S. special forces raid that detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro established the narrow resolution criteria: direct U.S. personnel involvement on the ground resulting in physical custody of a qualifying leader. Subsequent U.S. actions, including airstrikes on Iranian leadership and counter-narcotics operations in Latin America and Nigeria, have produced no comparable detentions of additional heads of state. With roughly three months remaining and no publicly confirmed indictments, intelligence alignments, or diplomatic setups targeting other leaders, traders price a repeat event as unlikely. Historical precedent shows such captures are exceptional and depend on specific legal, intelligence, and operational convergence that has not materialized for any other target.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
交易量
$81,403结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**No at 94.5% reflects the absence of active operations or conditions pointing to another capture of a sitting UN-member head of state by year-end.**
The January 2026 U.S. special forces raid that detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro established the narrow resolution criteria: direct U.S. personnel involvement on the ground resulting in physical custody of a qualifying leader. Subsequent U.S. actions, including airstrikes on Iranian leadership and counter-narcotics operations in Latin America and Nigeria, have produced no comparable detentions of additional heads of state. With roughly three months remaining and no publicly confirmed indictments, intelligence alignments, or diplomatic setups targeting other leaders, traders price a repeat event as unlikely. Historical precedent shows such captures are exceptional and depend on specific legal, intelligence, and operational convergence that has not materialized for any other target.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$81,403结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET**No at 94.5% reflects the absence of active operations or conditions pointing to another capture of a sitting UN-member head of state by year-end.** The January 2026 U.S. special forces raid that detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro established the narrow resolution criteria: direct U.S. personnel involvement on the ground resulting in physical custody of a qualifying leader. Subsequent U.S. actions, including airstrikes on Iranian leadership and counter-narcotics operations in Latin America and Nigeria, have produced no comparable detentions of additional heads of state. With roughly three months remaining and no publicly confirmed indictments, intelligence alignments, or diplomatic setups targeting other leaders, traders price a repeat event as unlikely. Historical precedent shows such captures are exceptional and depend on specific legal, intelligence, and operational convergence that has not materialized for any other target.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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