Traders assign the highest implied probabilities in this market to former officials such as John Brennan and James Comey, though most outcomes remain below 50 percent given the narrow window until December 31, 2026. Recent developments include ongoing federal investigations and grand jury activity tied to prior national security matters, alongside broader DOJ enforcement patterns involving immigration protests and political figures, yet no qualifying arrests of listed individuals have occurred. The market resolves only on physical custody, surrender, or formal detention meeting explicit criteria, excluding indictments or warrants alone. Upcoming court proceedings or charging decisions in late 2026 could alter positioning, while the compressed timeline and procedural requirements constrain shifts in consensus pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于谁将在2027年之前被捕？
谁将在2027年之前被捕？
$436,007 交易量
2026-12-31
安东尼·福奇
8%
约翰·布伦南
29%
何塞·路易斯·罗德里格斯·萨帕特罗
6%
亚当·希夫
4%
巴拉克·奥巴马
2%
詹姆斯·科米
5%
马哈茂德·哈利勒
17%
詹姆斯·克拉珀
12%
莱蒂蒂娅·詹姆斯
5%
希拉里·克林顿
3%
比尔·克林顿
1%
洛雷塔·林奇
3%
苏珊·赖斯
12%
坎迪斯·欧文斯
7%
加文·纽森
2%
本雅明·内塔尼亚胡
5%
约翰·克里
1%
Pam Bondi
2%
托姆·霍曼
5%
卡什·帕特尔
1%
布兰登·约翰逊
10%
丽莎·库克
4%
李俊锡
11%
乔·拜登
<1%
$436,007 交易量
安东尼·福奇
$168,233 交易量
8%
约翰·布伦南
$25,795 交易量
29%
何塞·路易斯·罗德里格斯·萨帕特罗
$25,714 交易量
6%
亚当·希夫
$17,083 交易量
4%
巴拉克·奥巴马
$29,834 交易量
2%
詹姆斯·科米
$11,372 交易量
5%
马哈茂德·哈利勒
$2,042 交易量
17%
詹姆斯·克拉珀
$8,482 交易量
12%
莱蒂蒂娅·詹姆斯
$5,041 交易量
5%
希拉里·克林顿
$28,683 交易量
3%
比尔·克林顿
$3,023 交易量
1%
洛雷塔·林奇
$2,652 交易量
3%
苏珊·赖斯
$404 交易量
12%
坎迪斯·欧文斯
$308 交易量
7%
加文·纽森
$41,021 交易量
2%
本雅明·内塔尼亚胡
$1,949 交易量
5%
约翰·克里
$503 交易量
1%
Pam Bondi
$2,189 交易量
2%
托姆·霍曼
$43,797 交易量
5%
卡什·帕特尔
$607 交易量
1%
布兰登·约翰逊
$3,316 交易量
10%
丽莎·库克
$4,052 交易量
4%
李俊锡
$794 交易量
11%
乔·拜登
$9,115 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities in this market to former officials such as John Brennan and James Comey, though most outcomes remain below 50 percent given the narrow window until December 31, 2026. Recent developments include ongoing federal investigations and grand jury activity tied to prior national security matters, alongside broader DOJ enforcement patterns involving immigration protests and political figures, yet no qualifying arrests of listed individuals have occurred. The market resolves only on physical custody, surrender, or formal detention meeting explicit criteria, excluding indictments or warrants alone. Upcoming court proceedings or charging decisions in late 2026 could alter positioning, while the compressed timeline and procedural requirements constrain shifts in consensus pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
交易量
$436,007结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities in this market to former officials such as John Brennan and James Comey, though most outcomes remain below 50 percent given the narrow window until December 31, 2026. Recent developments include ongoing federal investigations and grand jury activity tied to prior national security matters, alongside broader DOJ enforcement patterns involving immigration protests and political figures, yet no qualifying arrests of listed individuals have occurred. The market resolves only on physical custody, surrender, or formal detention meeting explicit criteria, excluding indictments or warrants alone. Upcoming court proceedings or charging decisions in late 2026 could alter positioning, while the compressed timeline and procedural requirements constrain shifts in consensus pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$436,007结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETTraders assign the highest implied probabilities in this market to former officials such as John Brennan and James Comey, though most outcomes remain below 50 percent given the narrow window until December 31, 2026. Recent developments include ongoing federal investigations and grand jury activity tied to prior national security matters, alongside broader DOJ enforcement patterns involving immigration protests and political figures, yet no qualifying arrests of listed individuals have occurred. The market resolves only on physical custody, surrender, or formal detention meeting explicit criteria, excluding indictments or warrants alone. Upcoming court proceedings or charging decisions in late 2026 could alter positioning, while the compressed timeline and procedural requirements constrain shifts in consensus pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题