Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to Mahmoud Khalil among listed outcomes in this multi-select market, driven by his protracted immigration enforcement case stemming from 2025 campus protests. Federal appeals courts have issued mixed rulings on detention and removal proceedings, with further appeals pending that could trigger re-arrest by ICE before the 2027 cutoff. James Comey’s April 2026 indictment on unrelated charges and ongoing scrutiny of other former officials such as John Brennan and Anthony Fauci reflect broader DOJ activity targeting high-profile figures. These developments, alongside scheduled court dates and potential Supreme Court review in Khalil’s matter, represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities across outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于谁将在2027年之前被捕？
谁将在2027年之前被捕？
$347,732 交易量
安东尼·福奇
13%
约翰·布伦南
29%
何塞·路易斯·罗德里格斯·萨帕特罗
18%
亚当·希夫
3%
巴拉克·奥巴马
1%
詹姆斯·科米
8%
马哈茂德·哈利勒
28%
詹姆斯·克拉珀
11%
莱蒂蒂娅·詹姆斯
14%
希拉里·克林顿
3%
比尔·克林顿
2%
洛雷塔·林奇
31%
苏珊·赖斯
9%
坎迪斯·欧文斯
6%
加文·纽森
3%
本雅明·内塔尼亚胡
5%
约翰·克里
3%
Pam Bondi
3%
托姆·霍曼
7%
卡什·帕特尔
1%
布兰登·约翰逊
12%
丽莎·库克
14%
李俊锡
11%
乔·拜登
2%
$347,732 交易量
安东尼·福奇
$121,675 交易量
13%
约翰·布伦南
$18,165 交易量
29%
何塞·路易斯·罗德里格斯·萨帕特罗
$21,185 交易量
18%
亚当·希夫
$16,325 交易量
3%
巴拉克·奥巴马
$28,351 交易量
1%
詹姆斯·科米
$9,577 交易量
8%
马哈茂德·哈利勒
$1,276 交易量
28%
詹姆斯·克拉珀
$6,576 交易量
11%
莱蒂蒂娅·詹姆斯
$2,797 交易量
14%
希拉里·克林顿
$24,846 交易量
3%
比尔·克林顿
$1,830 交易量
2%
洛雷塔·林奇
$2,344 交易量
31%
苏珊·赖斯
$303 交易量
9%
坎迪斯·欧文斯
$263 交易量
6%
加文·纽森
$37,011 交易量
3%
本雅明·内塔尼亚胡
$1,755 交易量
5%
约翰·克里
$279 交易量
3%
Pam Bondi
$1,710 交易量
3%
托姆·霍曼
$38,826 交易量
7%
卡什·帕特尔
$357 交易量
1%
布兰登·约翰逊
$3,072 交易量
12%
丽莎·库克
$3,013 交易量
14%
李俊锡
$794 交易量
11%
乔·拜登
$5,402 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to Mahmoud Khalil among listed outcomes in this multi-select market, driven by his protracted immigration enforcement case stemming from 2025 campus protests. Federal appeals courts have issued mixed rulings on detention and removal proceedings, with further appeals pending that could trigger re-arrest by ICE before the 2027 cutoff. James Comey’s April 2026 indictment on unrelated charges and ongoing scrutiny of other former officials such as John Brennan and Anthony Fauci reflect broader DOJ activity targeting high-profile figures. These developments, alongside scheduled court dates and potential Supreme Court review in Khalil’s matter, represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities across outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
交易量
$347,732市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to Mahmoud Khalil among listed outcomes in this multi-select market, driven by his protracted immigration enforcement case stemming from 2025 campus protests. Federal appeals courts have issued mixed rulings on detention and removal proceedings, with further appeals pending that could trigger re-arrest by ICE before the 2027 cutoff. James Comey’s April 2026 indictment on unrelated charges and ongoing scrutiny of other former officials such as John Brennan and Anthony Fauci reflect broader DOJ activity targeting high-profile figures. These developments, alongside scheduled court dates and potential Supreme Court review in Khalil’s matter, represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities across outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$347,732市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to Mahmoud Khalil among listed outcomes in this multi-select market, driven by his protracted immigration enforcement case stemming from 2025 campus protests. Federal appeals courts have issued mixed rulings on detention and removal proceedings, with further appeals pending that could trigger re-arrest by ICE before the 2027 cutoff. James Comey’s April 2026 indictment on unrelated charges and ongoing scrutiny of other former officials such as John Brennan and Anthony Fauci reflect broader DOJ activity targeting high-profile figures. These developments, alongside scheduled court dates and potential Supreme Court review in Khalil’s matter, represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities across outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题