Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through military purges and party discipline has produced the trader consensus reflected in the 95.9% probability of “No.” Investigations into senior generals such as Zhang Youxia in early 2026 were widely reported as anti-corruption measures that further centralized authority in the Central Military Commission rather than evidence of rival factions mounting a challenge. China’s closed political system, combined with the Chinese Communist Party’s control over security forces and information flows, continues to suppress visible dissent or organized opposition. While abrupt leadership health events, severe economic shocks, or external crises could theoretically create openings for instability before 2027, the current structure of elite incentives and institutional safeguards makes such developments unlikely to trigger a coup attempt within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$135,659 交易量
$135,659 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$135,659 交易量
$135,659 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through military purges and party discipline has produced the trader consensus reflected in the 95.9% probability of “No.” Investigations into senior generals such as Zhang Youxia in early 2026 were widely reported as anti-corruption measures that further centralized authority in the Central Military Commission rather than evidence of rival factions mounting a challenge. China’s closed political system, combined with the Chinese Communist Party’s control over security forces and information flows, continues to suppress visible dissent or organized opposition. While abrupt leadership health events, severe economic shocks, or external crises could theoretically create openings for instability before 2027, the current structure of elite incentives and institutional safeguards makes such developments unlikely to trigger a coup attempt within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$135,659结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through military purges and party discipline has produced the trader consensus reflected in the 95.9% probability of “No.” Investigations into senior generals such as Zhang Youxia in early 2026 were widely reported as anti-corruption measures that further centralized authority in the Central Military Commission rather than evidence of rival factions mounting a challenge. China’s closed political system, combined with the Chinese Communist Party’s control over security forces and information flows, continues to suppress visible dissent or organized opposition. While abrupt leadership health events, severe economic shocks, or external crises could theoretically create openings for instability before 2027, the current structure of elite incentives and institutional safeguards makes such developments unlikely to trigger a coup attempt within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$135,668结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through military purges and party discipline has produced the trader consensus reflected in the 95.9% probability of “No.” Investigations into senior generals such as Zhang Youxia in early 2026 were widely reported as anti-corruption measures that further centralized authority in the Central Military Commission rather than evidence of rival factions mounting a challenge. China’s closed political system, combined with the Chinese Communist Party’s control over security forces and information flows, continues to suppress visible dissent or organized opposition. While abrupt leadership health events, severe economic shocks, or external crises could theoretically create openings for instability before 2027, the current structure of elite incentives and institutional safeguards makes such developments unlikely to trigger a coup attempt within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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