The Chinese Communist Party's centralized authority, extensive surveillance apparatus, and firm subordination of the People's Liberation Army to civilian leadership create formidable structural barriers to any coup attempt through 2027. Recent leadership consolidation, military purges targeting potential rivals, and sustained domestic stability have reinforced trader consensus around a low probability, reflecting historical patterns of one-party resilience absent major shocks. While near-certain market pricing aligns with the absence of visible factional fractures or elite defections, realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen leadership health crises, severe economic disruptions prompting elite realignments, or external conflicts exposing internal divisions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$139,541 交易量
$139,541 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$139,541 交易量
$139,541 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Chinese Communist Party's centralized authority, extensive surveillance apparatus, and firm subordination of the People's Liberation Army to civilian leadership create formidable structural barriers to any coup attempt through 2027. Recent leadership consolidation, military purges targeting potential rivals, and sustained domestic stability have reinforced trader consensus around a low probability, reflecting historical patterns of one-party resilience absent major shocks. While near-certain market pricing aligns with the absence of visible factional fractures or elite defections, realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen leadership health crises, severe economic disruptions prompting elite realignments, or external conflicts exposing internal divisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$139,541结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Chinese Communist Party's centralized authority, extensive surveillance apparatus, and firm subordination of the People's Liberation Army to civilian leadership create formidable structural barriers to any coup attempt through 2027. Recent leadership consolidation, military purges targeting potential rivals, and sustained domestic stability have reinforced trader consensus around a low probability, reflecting historical patterns of one-party resilience absent major shocks. While near-certain market pricing aligns with the absence of visible factional fractures or elite defections, realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen leadership health crises, severe economic disruptions prompting elite realignments, or external conflicts exposing internal divisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$139,541结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Chinese Communist Party's centralized authority, extensive surveillance apparatus, and firm subordination of the People's Liberation Army to civilian leadership create formidable structural barriers to any coup attempt through 2027. Recent leadership consolidation, military purges targeting potential rivals, and sustained domestic stability have reinforced trader consensus around a low probability, reflecting historical patterns of one-party resilience absent major shocks. While near-certain market pricing aligns with the absence of visible factional fractures or elite defections, realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen leadership health crises, severe economic disruptions prompting elite realignments, or external conflicts exposing internal divisions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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