China's centralized Communist Party structure, extensive surveillance apparatus, and ongoing military purges under Xi Jinping underpin traders' strong consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Early 2026 investigations into senior generals, including Zhang Youxia, were widely viewed as Xi's preemptive consolidation of loyalty rather than signs of organized opposition, with no verified reports of plots emerging in subsequent months. Reforms prioritizing personal allegiance in the People's Liberation Army, combined with historical patterns of managed elite transitions, reinforce this stability assessment reflected in the 97% implied probability for no attempt. Low-probability shifts could still arise from abrupt leadership health events, severe economic disruptions fracturing elite cohesion, or external shocks testing command chains, though such factors have not altered current positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$139,486 交易量
$139,486 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$139,486 交易量
$139,486 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.China's centralized Communist Party structure, extensive surveillance apparatus, and ongoing military purges under Xi Jinping underpin traders' strong consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Early 2026 investigations into senior generals, including Zhang Youxia, were widely viewed as Xi's preemptive consolidation of loyalty rather than signs of organized opposition, with no verified reports of plots emerging in subsequent months. Reforms prioritizing personal allegiance in the People's Liberation Army, combined with historical patterns of managed elite transitions, reinforce this stability assessment reflected in the 97% implied probability for no attempt. Low-probability shifts could still arise from abrupt leadership health events, severe economic disruptions fracturing elite cohesion, or external shocks testing command chains, though such factors have not altered current positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$139,486结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.China's centralized Communist Party structure, extensive surveillance apparatus, and ongoing military purges under Xi Jinping underpin traders' strong consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Early 2026 investigations into senior generals, including Zhang Youxia, were widely viewed as Xi's preemptive consolidation of loyalty rather than signs of organized opposition, with no verified reports of plots emerging in subsequent months. Reforms prioritizing personal allegiance in the People's Liberation Army, combined with historical patterns of managed elite transitions, reinforce this stability assessment reflected in the 97% implied probability for no attempt. Low-probability shifts could still arise from abrupt leadership health events, severe economic disruptions fracturing elite cohesion, or external shocks testing command chains, though such factors have not altered current positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$139,486结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China's centralized Communist Party structure, extensive surveillance apparatus, and ongoing military purges under Xi Jinping underpin traders' strong consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Early 2026 investigations into senior generals, including Zhang Youxia, were widely viewed as Xi's preemptive consolidation of loyalty rather than signs of organized opposition, with no verified reports of plots emerging in subsequent months. Reforms prioritizing personal allegiance in the People's Liberation Army, combined with historical patterns of managed elite transitions, reinforce this stability assessment reflected in the 97% implied probability for no attempt. Low-probability shifts could still arise from abrupt leadership health events, severe economic disruptions fracturing elite cohesion, or external shocks testing command chains, though such factors have not altered current positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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