Xi Jinping’s repeated anti-corruption purges within the Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army, including the early 2026 investigation of senior Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia, have further concentrated authority and removed potential rivals, reinforcing trader expectations of continued stability through 2026. China’s centralized Leninist structures, extensive internal-security apparatus, and absence of successful coup attempts since 1949 underpin the 95.9 percent implied probability against any widely reported attempt before 2027. Low-probability shifts remain possible if an acute leadership health event or severe economic dislocation fractures elite cohesion, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$135,694 交易量
$135,694 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$135,694 交易量
$135,694 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s repeated anti-corruption purges within the Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army, including the early 2026 investigation of senior Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia, have further concentrated authority and removed potential rivals, reinforcing trader expectations of continued stability through 2026. China’s centralized Leninist structures, extensive internal-security apparatus, and absence of successful coup attempts since 1949 underpin the 95.9 percent implied probability against any widely reported attempt before 2027. Low-probability shifts remain possible if an acute leadership health event or severe economic dislocation fractures elite cohesion, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$135,694结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s repeated anti-corruption purges within the Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army, including the early 2026 investigation of senior Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia, have further concentrated authority and removed potential rivals, reinforcing trader expectations of continued stability through 2026. China’s centralized Leninist structures, extensive internal-security apparatus, and absence of successful coup attempts since 1949 underpin the 95.9 percent implied probability against any widely reported attempt before 2027. Low-probability shifts remain possible if an acute leadership health event or severe economic dislocation fractures elite cohesion, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$135,694结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s repeated anti-corruption purges within the Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army, including the early 2026 investigation of senior Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia, have further concentrated authority and removed potential rivals, reinforcing trader expectations of continued stability through 2026. China’s centralized Leninist structures, extensive internal-security apparatus, and absence of successful coup attempts since 1949 underpin the 95.9 percent implied probability against any widely reported attempt before 2027. Low-probability shifts remain possible if an acute leadership health event or severe economic dislocation fractures elite cohesion, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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