**Internal power struggles following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in February 2026 have fueled trader focus on coup-related outcomes.** Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged public absence created a vacuum, prompting hardliners in the Paydari Front to accuse President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, limiting parliamentary input, and advancing U.S. truce talks. Recent reporting highlights Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders consolidating authority into a military-led structure, sidelining clerical elements. Judiciary officials have publicly warned of coup risks and external plots, while economic strain and resumed hostilities with the U.S. intensify factional tensions between pragmatic "realists" and ideological hardliners. These verified divisions and institutional shifts shape assessments of potential attempts by specific actors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,122,612 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
8%
$2,122,612 交易量
12月31日
$81,386 交易量
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal power struggles following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in February 2026 have fueled trader focus on coup-related outcomes.** Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged public absence created a vacuum, prompting hardliners in the Paydari Front to accuse President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, limiting parliamentary input, and advancing U.S. truce talks. Recent reporting highlights Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders consolidating authority into a military-led structure, sidelining clerical elements. Judiciary officials have publicly warned of coup risks and external plots, while economic strain and resumed hostilities with the U.S. intensify factional tensions between pragmatic "realists" and ideological hardliners. These verified divisions and institutional shifts shape assessments of potential attempts by specific actors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
交易量
$2,122,612结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal power struggles following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in February 2026 have fueled trader focus on coup-related outcomes.** Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged public absence created a vacuum, prompting hardliners in the Paydari Front to accuse President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, limiting parliamentary input, and advancing U.S. truce talks. Recent reporting highlights Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders consolidating authority into a military-led structure, sidelining clerical elements. Judiciary officials have publicly warned of coup risks and external plots, while economic strain and resumed hostilities with the U.S. intensify factional tensions between pragmatic "realists" and ideological hardliners. These verified divisions and institutional shifts shape assessments of potential attempts by specific actors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,122,612结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Internal power struggles following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in February 2026 have fueled trader focus on coup-related outcomes.** Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged public absence created a vacuum, prompting hardliners in the Paydari Front to accuse President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, limiting parliamentary input, and advancing U.S. truce talks. Recent reporting highlights Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders consolidating authority into a military-led structure, sidelining clerical elements. Judiciary officials have publicly warned of coup risks and external plots, while economic strain and resumed hostilities with the U.S. intensify factional tensions between pragmatic "realists" and ideological hardliners. These verified divisions and institutional shifts shape assessments of potential attempts by specific actors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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