Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with rivals triggered trader interest in U.S. explosive testing markets, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized subcritical or non-critical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992 and retains technical readiness to conduct an underground test within 24-36 months of a presidential decision, primarily at the Nevada National Security Site. Official policy continues to prioritize stockpile stewardship without explosive testing, while congressional oversight of NNSA funding and international diplomatic signaling around the CTBT remain key variables. No explosive test has occurred as of mid-2026, and procedural, environmental, and alliance considerations continue to shape timelines for any potential resumption.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$768,767 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
4%
$768,767 交易量
2026年9月30日
$57,189 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$50,767 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with rivals triggered trader interest in U.S. explosive testing markets, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized subcritical or non-critical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992 and retains technical readiness to conduct an underground test within 24-36 months of a presidential decision, primarily at the Nevada National Security Site. Official policy continues to prioritize stockpile stewardship without explosive testing, while congressional oversight of NNSA funding and international diplomatic signaling around the CTBT remain key variables. No explosive test has occurred as of mid-2026, and procedural, environmental, and alliance considerations continue to shape timelines for any potential resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$768,767结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with rivals triggered trader interest in U.S. explosive testing markets, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized subcritical or non-critical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992 and retains technical readiness to conduct an underground test within 24-36 months of a presidential decision, primarily at the Nevada National Security Site. Official policy continues to prioritize stockpile stewardship without explosive testing, while congressional oversight of NNSA funding and international diplomatic signaling around the CTBT remain key variables. No explosive test has occurred as of mid-2026, and procedural, environmental, and alliance considerations continue to shape timelines for any potential resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$768,767结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with rivals triggered trader interest in U.S. explosive testing markets, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized subcritical or non-critical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992 and retains technical readiness to conduct an underground test within 24-36 months of a presidential decision, primarily at the Nevada National Security Site. Official policy continues to prioritize stockpile stewardship without explosive testing, while congressional oversight of NNSA funding and international diplomatic signaling around the CTBT remain key variables. No explosive test has occurred as of mid-2026, and procedural, environmental, and alliance considerations continue to shape timelines for any potential resumption.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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