Trader consensus prices a modest 13% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the market frontrunner—reflecting persistent adherence to the 1992 testing moratorium despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to resume explosive nuclear weapons testing. No concrete preparations or announcements have advanced since then, with the National Nuclear Security Administration prioritizing stockpile stewardship through advanced simulations rather than live detonations. Early March 2026 U.S. conventional strikes on Iranian nuclear sites heightened geopolitical tensions but did not signal testing escalation. Barriers include Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty pressures, congressional funding hurdles, and lengthy Nevada Test Site reactivation. Watch FY2027 DOE budget debates and CTBT ratification hearings for potential shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$640,716 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
1%
2026年9月30日
6%
2026年12月31日
13%
$640,716 交易量
2026年6月30日
$23,901 交易量
1%
2026年9月30日
$2,322 交易量
6%
2026年12月31日
$4,274 交易量
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a modest 13% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the market frontrunner—reflecting persistent adherence to the 1992 testing moratorium despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to resume explosive nuclear weapons testing. No concrete preparations or announcements have advanced since then, with the National Nuclear Security Administration prioritizing stockpile stewardship through advanced simulations rather than live detonations. Early March 2026 U.S. conventional strikes on Iranian nuclear sites heightened geopolitical tensions but did not signal testing escalation. Barriers include Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty pressures, congressional funding hurdles, and lengthy Nevada Test Site reactivation. Watch FY2027 DOE budget debates and CTBT ratification hearings for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$640,716结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a modest 13% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the market frontrunner—reflecting persistent adherence to the 1992 testing moratorium despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to resume explosive nuclear weapons testing. No concrete preparations or announcements have advanced since then, with the National Nuclear Security Administration prioritizing stockpile stewardship through advanced simulations rather than live detonations. Early March 2026 U.S. conventional strikes on Iranian nuclear sites heightened geopolitical tensions but did not signal testing escalation. Barriers include Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty pressures, congressional funding hurdles, and lengthy Nevada Test Site reactivation. Watch FY2027 DOE budget debates and CTBT ratification hearings for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$640,716结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a modest 13% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the market frontrunner—reflecting persistent adherence to the 1992 testing moratorium despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to resume explosive nuclear weapons testing. No concrete preparations or announcements have advanced since then, with the National Nuclear Security Administration prioritizing stockpile stewardship through advanced simulations rather than live detonations. Early March 2026 U.S. conventional strikes on Iranian nuclear sites heightened geopolitical tensions but did not signal testing escalation. Barriers include Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty pressures, congressional funding hurdles, and lengthy Nevada Test Site reactivation. Watch FY2027 DOE budget debates and CTBT ratification hearings for potential shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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