Trump's October 2025 announcement directing the Pentagon to prepare nuclear tests "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted initial market attention, yet technical and procedural realities have kept probabilities low. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains readiness timelines of 24-36 months for an underground test at the Nevada National Security Site, with additional delays possible from environmental reviews, safety compliance, and congressional funding oversight. No explosive tests have occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and analyses from the Congressional Research Service and others highlight that full resumption requires presidential direction plus substantial preparation not yet completed by mid-2026. Traders assign just 4% odds to a test by December 31, 2026, reflecting these barriers alongside diplomatic signaling and stockpile stewardship priorities. Key near-term factors include any new budget allocations, site-specific progress reports, or shifts in arms control talks with Russia and China.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$768,767 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
4%
$768,767 交易量
2026年9月30日
$57,189 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$50,767 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump's October 2025 announcement directing the Pentagon to prepare nuclear tests "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted initial market attention, yet technical and procedural realities have kept probabilities low. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains readiness timelines of 24-36 months for an underground test at the Nevada National Security Site, with additional delays possible from environmental reviews, safety compliance, and congressional funding oversight. No explosive tests have occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and analyses from the Congressional Research Service and others highlight that full resumption requires presidential direction plus substantial preparation not yet completed by mid-2026. Traders assign just 4% odds to a test by December 31, 2026, reflecting these barriers alongside diplomatic signaling and stockpile stewardship priorities. Key near-term factors include any new budget allocations, site-specific progress reports, or shifts in arms control talks with Russia and China.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$768,767结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump's October 2025 announcement directing the Pentagon to prepare nuclear tests "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted initial market attention, yet technical and procedural realities have kept probabilities low. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains readiness timelines of 24-36 months for an underground test at the Nevada National Security Site, with additional delays possible from environmental reviews, safety compliance, and congressional funding oversight. No explosive tests have occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and analyses from the Congressional Research Service and others highlight that full resumption requires presidential direction plus substantial preparation not yet completed by mid-2026. Traders assign just 4% odds to a test by December 31, 2026, reflecting these barriers alongside diplomatic signaling and stockpile stewardship priorities. Key near-term factors include any new budget allocations, site-specific progress reports, or shifts in arms control talks with Russia and China.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$768,767结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's October 2025 announcement directing the Pentagon to prepare nuclear tests "on an equal basis" with other nations prompted initial market attention, yet technical and procedural realities have kept probabilities low. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains readiness timelines of 24-36 months for an underground test at the Nevada National Security Site, with additional delays possible from environmental reviews, safety compliance, and congressional funding oversight. No explosive tests have occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and analyses from the Congressional Research Service and others highlight that full resumption requires presidential direction plus substantial preparation not yet completed by mid-2026. Traders assign just 4% odds to a test by December 31, 2026, reflecting these barriers alongside diplomatic signaling and stockpile stewardship priorities. Key near-term factors include any new budget allocations, site-specific progress reports, or shifts in arms control talks with Russia and China.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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