The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada Test Site, relying on stockpile stewardship simulations, subcritical experiments, and supercomputing to certify arsenal reliability under the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing Pentagon resumption in response to perceived Russia and China testing sparked debate but yielded no action, with a December 2025 National Defense Authorization Act authorizing tests only if a foreign state detonates first. The February 2026 New START treaty expiration amplified modernization pressures, yet no adversary triggers have emerged and no funding shifts have occurred in the past 30 days. Upcoming FY2026 NNSA budget votes and diplomatic developments could sway policy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$642,188 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
2%
2026年9月30日
6%
2026年12月31日
13%
$642,188 交易量
2026年6月30日
$24,401 交易量
2%
2026年9月30日
$2,430 交易量
6%
2026年12月31日
$5,138 交易量
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada Test Site, relying on stockpile stewardship simulations, subcritical experiments, and supercomputing to certify arsenal reliability under the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing Pentagon resumption in response to perceived Russia and China testing sparked debate but yielded no action, with a December 2025 National Defense Authorization Act authorizing tests only if a foreign state detonates first. The February 2026 New START treaty expiration amplified modernization pressures, yet no adversary triggers have emerged and no funding shifts have occurred in the past 30 days. Upcoming FY2026 NNSA budget votes and diplomatic developments could sway policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$642,188结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada Test Site, relying on stockpile stewardship simulations, subcritical experiments, and supercomputing to certify arsenal reliability under the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing Pentagon resumption in response to perceived Russia and China testing sparked debate but yielded no action, with a December 2025 National Defense Authorization Act authorizing tests only if a foreign state detonates first. The February 2026 New START treaty expiration amplified modernization pressures, yet no adversary triggers have emerged and no funding shifts have occurred in the past 30 days. Upcoming FY2026 NNSA budget votes and diplomatic developments could sway policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$642,188结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada Test Site, relying on stockpile stewardship simulations, subcritical experiments, and supercomputing to certify arsenal reliability under the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. President Trump's October 2025 statements directing Pentagon resumption in response to perceived Russia and China testing sparked debate but yielded no action, with a December 2025 National Defense Authorization Act authorizing tests only if a foreign state detonates first. The February 2026 New START treaty expiration amplified modernization pressures, yet no adversary triggers have emerged and no funding shifts have occurred in the past 30 days. Upcoming FY2026 NNSA budget votes and diplomatic developments could sway policy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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