Ukrainian counterattacks north of Lyman have reversed months of Russian positioning in the Donetsk sector, with forces retaking 150–240 square kilometers since late May and recent gains of at least 35 square kilometers near Sviatohirsk and surrounding villages. These operations, involving the 3rd Army Corps and supporting brigades, have eliminated or squeezed Russian salients, forced withdrawals toward the Zherebets River, and disrupted lines of communication aimed at Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Russian military bloggers have acknowledged the setbacks and criticized command reporting, while independent assessments confirm Ukrainian control over most of Lyman itself amid ongoing gray-zone fighting. The slowed Russian pace of advance and Ukrainian initiative in this sector directly shape trader assessments of capture timelines, with any further Ukrainian consolidation or Russian reinforcement likely to influence near-term probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Ukrainian counterattacks strengthen defenses around Lyman, blocking Russian advances
December 31 drops to 12%10%
Ukrainian forces increased control around Lyman, pushing Russian troops back beyond key rivers and solidifying defensive positions, confirming Russian failure to capture the railroad station by the resolution date.
Russian milbloggers acknowledge deteriorating situation near Lyman and Ukrainian counterattacks
Russian milbloggers admitted worsening conditions for Russian forces near Lyman and ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks, with Russian forces withdrawing from some forward positions, confirming Ukrainian control and further reducing market confidence in Russian capture.




警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题