OpenAI’s post-money valuation reached $852 billion following its record $122 billion funding round closed March 31, 2026, anchored by Amazon, NVIDIA, SoftBank, and Microsoft. Secondary-market platforms such as Forge Global currently imply roughly $880 billion, reflecting continued investor appetite amid rapid revenue growth from ChatGPT and enterprise API usage. CEO Sam Altman’s June 2026 comments indicated a confidential U.S. IPO filing, with an expected listing within the next year that could establish a public-market benchmark before year-end. Competitive pressure from Anthropic, whose secondary shares recently traded above $1 trillion, and ongoing multi-billion-dollar infrastructure commitments add volatility to private valuation assessments used by prediction markets. Key catalysts through December include additional funding tranches, product launches, and regulatory or IPO-related disclosures that could shift implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Reports suggest OpenAI IPO may be delayed to 2027
↑$1.25T drops to 37%11%
By mid-July 2026, reports emerged that OpenAI was considering delaying its IPO to 2027 due to financial commitments and market conditions. This dampened market enthusiasm for a 2026 IPO at or above $1 trillion valuation, reflected in declining prices for higher valuation outcomes.
Apple files lawsuit accusing OpenAI of stealing trade secrets
Apple's lawsuit alleging trade secret theft against OpenAI raised legal risks and governance concerns, negatively impacting market confidence in OpenAI's valuation prospects, especially for higher valuation outcomes.
Wall Street Journal reports Apple lawsuit against OpenAI
↓$750B jumps to 28%6%
The Wall Street Journal coverage of Apple's lawsuit against OpenAI increased public awareness of the legal challenge, further impacting market sentiment negatively.
Apple files lawsuit accusing OpenAI of stealing trade secrets
↑$900B drops to 81%11%
On July 10, 2026, Apple filed a lawsuit against OpenAI alleging theft of trade secrets, raising concerns about legal risks and corporate governance. This negatively impacted market sentiment and caused a drop in valuation prices.
Apple sues OpenAI hardware chief over alleged IP theft
↑$1.5T drops to 25%8%
Apple filed a lawsuit accusing OpenAI's hardware chief of stealing confidential chip designs, introducing legal risk and uncertainty around OpenAI's hardware ambitions. This negatively impacted market sentiment and valuation expectations.
Apple sues OpenAI alleging trade secret theft
↑$900B drops to 72%9%
On July 10, 2026, Apple filed a lawsuit accusing OpenAI of stealing trade secrets, which was reported widely by July 13. This legal challenge introduced new risks and uncertainty, causing a decline in market confidence in OpenAI's valuation prospects.
Apple sues OpenAI alleging trade secret theft
↓$750B rises to 23%1%
On July 10, 2026, Apple filed a lawsuit against OpenAI accusing it of stealing trade secrets, raising concerns about corporate data security and potentially impacting OpenAI's valuation and IPO timing due to legal risks.
OpenAI launches GPT-5.6, boosting market optimism on valuation
↑$900B rises to 94%4%
On July 9, 2026, OpenAI released GPT-5.6, its latest AI model, which enhanced market sentiment about the company's growth prospects and valuation potential. This technological advancement contributed to a temporary rebound in market pricing for valuation thresholds.
Launch of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model sparks renewed investor interest
The release of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 on July 9, 2026, showcased technological advancement, boosting confidence in the company's growth prospects and positively influencing valuation expectations.
Launch of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model
↑$1.75T drops to 14%6%
The release of GPT-5.6 showcased OpenAI's technological advancement, but market reaction was cautious due to competitive pressures and profitability concerns, leading to declines in valuation probabilities for the highest targets.
OpenAI discusses potential 5% US government stake
↑$900B rises to 92%2%
Preliminary talks about the US government acquiring a 5% stake in OpenAI indicated strategic partnerships and potential capital infusion, supporting valuation confidence around $900B but with some uncertainty.
Nasdaq Private Market reports OpenAI share price at $717.77
↑$900B rises to 72%1%
Nasdaq Private Market published an estimated OpenAI share price of $717.77, reflecting ongoing private market valuation activity and providing a data point for market resolution. This price supported market confidence in valuations near the $900 billion threshold.
OpenAI proposes donating 5% equity to U.S. sovereign wealth fund
↓$750B jumps to 28%6%
On July 2, 2026, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman proposed giving 5% of the company's equity to a U.S. sovereign wealth fund, aiming to share AI-driven economic growth with the public, which introduced new governance and policy considerations affecting valuation.
OpenAI in talks to give US government 5% equity stake via Public Wealth Fund
↑$900B rises to 92%2%
On July 2, 2026, reports emerged that OpenAI was negotiating to voluntarily allocate up to 5% of its equity to the US government through a Public Wealth Fund, potentially worth $42.6 billion. This novel approach to distributing AI-generated value influenced market perceptions of governance and valuation.
OpenAI CEO proposes donating 5% equity to U.S. sovereign wealth fund
↑$900B jumps to 88%7%
On July 2, 2026, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman proposed donating 5% of the company's equity to a U.S. sovereign wealth fund to share AI-driven economic growth with citizens. This novel proposal attracted attention but added uncertainty about governance and valuation.
OpenAI discusses giving US government a 5% equity stake
↓$750B jumps to 28%6%
By early July 2026, OpenAI was in preliminary talks to grant the US government a 5% stake worth about $42.6 billion, reflecting strategic moves to align with government interests and potentially stabilize valuation perceptions.
SoftBank stock plunges $38B after OpenAI IPO delay news
↑$1.75T plunges to 20%20%
Following reports of OpenAI's IPO delay and valuation holdout, SoftBank's stock dropped sharply, reflecting market skepticism about OpenAI's near-term valuation prospects and IPO timing. This event influenced market pricing downward for higher valuation outcomes.
OpenAI reportedly leans toward delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's rocky debut
↓$750B plunges to 22%30%
Following SpaceX's volatile IPO, OpenAI's executives reportedly decided to delay their IPO to 2027, prioritizing a $1 trillion valuation and financial stability. This news caused a tech selloff and a drop in OpenAI valuation market prices.
Reports emerge that OpenAI is considering delaying IPO until 2027
↑$1.75T drops to 14%13%
News that OpenAI might postpone its IPO to 2027 due to market conditions and SpaceX's underwhelming IPO debut caused sharp declines in near-term IPO valuation probabilities across all market outcomes.
Reports indicate OpenAI may delay IPO to 2027 amid market caution
↑$900B plunges to 72%22%
Following SpaceX's IPO and market volatility, reports emerged on June 25, 2026, that OpenAI is leaning toward delaying its IPO until 2027. This shift caused a decline in market confidence for higher valuation thresholds and increased uncertainty about the timing of OpenAI's public listing.
OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO until 2027 amid market caution
↑$1.25T dips to 59%3%
Reports on June 25, 2026, indicated OpenAI was leaning toward postponing its IPO to 2027 due to market conditions and caution following SpaceX's volatile IPO, causing some downward pressure on valuation expectations.
OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO to 2027 amid valuation concerns
↓$800B plunges to 39%15%
Reports indicated OpenAI executives considering postponing the IPO to 2027 to meet a $1 trillion valuation target, citing market volatility and competitive pressures. This news caused a selloff in tech stocks and lowered market confidence in a 2026 IPO at high valuation.
Reports indicate OpenAI leaning toward delaying IPO until 2027
↑$1.5T drops to 40%11%
In late June 2026, reports emerged that OpenAI was considering postponing its IPO to 2027 due to market conditions and internal deliberations, causing a decline in market confidence for the highest valuation brackets.
OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO to 2027 amid market volatility
↑$900B plunges to 73%22%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is considering postponing its IPO to 2027 due to market volatility and the recent performance of SpaceX's IPO. CEO Sam Altman reportedly set a $1 trillion valuation floor, and the delay caused a re-pricing in prediction markets, reflecting increased uncertainty about a 2026 IPO and valuation milestones.
OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO until 2027 amid market caution
↑$1.0T drops to 73%14%
In late June 2026, reports emerged that OpenAI was considering postponing its IPO to 2027 due to market conditions and investor caution following SpaceX's volatile IPO. This news caused a decline in market prices for higher valuation outcomes and increased uncertainty about the IPO timing.
Reports emerge OpenAI leaning toward 2027 IPO listing
↑$1.0T drops to 73%14%
In late June 2026, reports indicated OpenAI was leaning toward delaying its IPO until 2027, citing financial commitments and market conditions. This news caused a decline in valuation market prices as investors adjusted expectations.
OpenAI Q1 2026 financials reveal $3.7 billion loss against $5.7 billion revenue
↑$1.25T drops to 56%5%
Documents shared with shareholders in mid-June 2026 showed OpenAI burned $3.7 billion in Q1 2026 while generating $5.7 billion in revenue, highlighting ongoing heavy losses despite rapid revenue growth. This tempered enthusiasm and contributed to some price volatility and downward pressure on higher valuation outcomes.
Reports reveal OpenAI's Q1 2026 financials showing $3.7B burn against $5.7B revenue
↓$750B drops to 41%11%
Documents shared with shareholders showed OpenAI's significant cash burn in Q1 2026, raising concerns about profitability and impacting valuation expectations negatively.
OpenAI Q1 2026 financials reveal $3.7 billion burn against $5.7 billion revenue
↓$800B plunges to 39%18%
Documents shared with shareholders in mid-June 2026 showed OpenAI burned $3.7 billion in Q1 2026 against $5.7 billion in revenue, highlighting high cash burn and raising concerns about profitability, which tempered market enthusiasm for the highest valuation outcomes.
OpenAI reports $3.7B Q1 2026 loss against $5.7B revenue
↑$1.25T plunges to 61%20%
Documents revealed OpenAI's significant cash burn despite strong revenue growth, highlighting profitability challenges. This tempered market enthusiasm and contributed to price volatility and downward pressure on higher valuation outcomes.
OpenAI Q1 2026 financials reveal $3.7 billion burn against $5.7 billion revenue
↓$750B drops to 41%11%
Documents shared with shareholders showed significant cash burn despite strong revenue, highlighting financial risks and impacting investor sentiment negatively, contributing to price volatility.
SpaceX completes record $1.77 trillion IPO, impacting tech market sentiment
↓$750B plunges to 35%15%
SpaceX's massive IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation set a new benchmark and influenced investor sentiment across tech IPOs, including OpenAI. The event contributed to volatility and cautious reassessment of OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation prospects.
SpaceX completes record-breaking IPO, valuation hits $1.77 trillion
↓$750B plunges to 22%30%
SpaceX's IPO on June 12, 2026, raised over $85 billion and reached a $1.77 trillion valuation on debut. The market reaction to this IPO, including a subsequent price decline, influenced investor sentiment toward other AI companies like OpenAI, causing caution and valuation reassessment.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 for IPO, targeting valuation above $1 trillion
↑$1.0T surges to 85%35%
On June 8, 2026, OpenAI confidentially filed a draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC, signaling formal IPO preparations and targeting a valuation above $1 trillion. This filing reinforced market expectations for a high valuation IPO, supporting elevated prices for the $1 trillion and above outcomes.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO targeting valuation above $1 trillion
↑$1.25T jumps to 61%10%
On June 8, 2026, OpenAI filed confidentially for an IPO with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters, targeting a valuation above $1 trillion, which reinforced market expectations for a high valuation despite uncertainty about timing.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO targeting $850 billion valuation
↑$900B dips to 92%2%
OpenAI filed confidential registration documents with the SEC, marking the first formal step toward a public offering. The filing indicated a potential IPO as early as September 2026 with a valuation around $850 billion, reinforcing market confidence but also introducing uncertainty about timing and valuation.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO draft S-1 targeting $1 trillion valuation
↑$1.0T surges to 84%34%
OpenAI filed a confidential draft S-1 with the SEC, reportedly targeting a valuation above $1 trillion, reinforcing expectations of a historic IPO and influencing valuation markets.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 with SEC targeting valuation above $1 trillion
↑$1.25T surges to 77%16%
The confidential S-1 filing reinforced expectations of a $1 trillion+ valuation IPO, supporting high market prices. However, management indicated the IPO process might take time, adding some uncertainty.
OpenAI confidentially submits S-1 but signals IPO timing uncertainty
↑$1.25T plunges to 62%15%
OpenAI's confidential S-1 submission reaffirmed IPO progress but the company's statement that 'it may be a while' introduced uncertainty, causing mixed market reactions and declines in higher valuation probabilities.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO with SEC targeting valuation above $1 trillion
↑$1.25T surges to 88%27%
On June 8, 2026, OpenAI confidentially filed its IPO registration with the SEC, reportedly targeting a valuation above $1 trillion. This event reinforced market expectations for a high valuation but also introduced uncertainty about timing and investor appetite.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 with SEC, IPO timing uncertain
↑$900B rises to 94%4%
On June 8, 2026, OpenAI filed a confidential draft S-1 with the SEC, but management indicated the IPO process may take a while, tempering immediate valuation expectations and causing some volatility in market prices.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential IPO filing with SEC
↑$1.0T surges to 85%35%
On June 8, 2026, OpenAI publicly confirmed its confidential IPO filing, reinforcing expectations of a public listing in late 2026 with a valuation above $1 trillion. This confirmation maintained market enthusiasm for a high valuation IPO.
Anthropic raises $65B at $965B valuation, surpassing OpenAI
↓$750B plunges to 35%15%
Anthropic's large funding round at a $965 billion valuation in late May 2026 surpassed OpenAI's $852 billion valuation, intensifying competition and causing some downward pressure on OpenAI's valuation market prices.
OpenAI files confidential IPO registration with SEC
↑$1.0T surges to 85%35%
OpenAI filed a confidential draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC on June 8, 2026, signaling preparation for a public offering potentially in late 2026. This filing increased market attention and speculation about OpenAI reaching or exceeding a $1 trillion valuation by year-end.
OpenAI files confidential draft registration statement with SEC
↑$1.0T surges to 85%35%
OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO, signaling serious intent to go public possibly in late 2026. This filing increased market optimism and valuation expectations, pushing prices higher.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 for IPO targeting $852B-$1T valuation
↑$900B jumps to 92%5%
OpenAI filed a confidential draft registration statement with the SEC on May 22, 2026, signaling its intent to go public with a valuation target between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This filing was a major catalyst for increased market optimism and valuation price jumps.
OpenAI files confidential draft registration statement with SEC
↑$900B jumps to 92%5%
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 registration statement with the SEC, signaling serious intent to go public and targeting a valuation above $1 trillion, which boosted market optimism.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 registration statement with SEC
↑$1.0T surges to 85%35%
OpenAI's confidential SEC filing marked a major step toward an IPO, boosting market optimism and driving up valuation probabilities, especially for the $900B and $1.0T outcomes.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 for IPO targeting $1 trillion valuation
↑$1.25T jumps to 61%10%
OpenAI filed a confidential draft S-1 with the SEC on May 22, 2026, signaling preparation for an IPO with a target valuation above $1 trillion. This filing significantly boosted market optimism about a high valuation IPO.
Anthropic reports strong Q2 revenue and first profitable quarter
↓$750B plunges to 35%15%
Anthropic's announcement of $10.9 billion Q2 revenue and profitability highlighted competitive pressure on OpenAI, tempering enthusiasm for higher valuation targets and influencing market price volatility.
OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing, targeting September 2026 debut
↑$900B surges to 87%37%
Reports on May 20, 2026 indicated OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for a U.S. IPO soon, aiming for a September 2026 public debut with a valuation above $850 billion. This news caused a sharp rise in market prices for higher valuation outcomes as investors anticipated a near-term IPO.
OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
↑$1.0T surges to 85%35%
OpenAI began preparing a confidential IPO filing in May 2026, working with major banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, signaling serious intent to go public and driving market optimism about valuation milestones.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing amid growing market anticipation
↑$900B jumps to 92%5%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to file confidentially for an IPO, working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. This news heightened market expectations for a public offering and contributed to increased valuation probabilities in prediction markets.
Jury finds Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI time-barred
↑$900B surges to 87%37%
A jury verdict on May 18, 2026, cleared a significant legal hurdle for OpenAI by ruling Elon Musk's lawsuit time-barred, removing a major obstacle to the company's IPO plans and boosting investor confidence in its valuation prospects.
Polymarket launches prediction markets on private company valuations including OpenAI
↑$900B surges to 87%37%
Polymarket partnered with Nasdaq Private Market to launch prediction markets allowing users to trade on private company valuation milestones, including OpenAI's valuation by December 31, 2026. This introduced a new public pricing layer for private company valuations, boosting market interest and initial pricing optimism.
Jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit challenging OpenAI restructuring
↑$900B surges to 87%37%
On May 19, 2026, a jury found that Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI was filed beyond the statute of limitations, dismissing the case. This removed a significant legal uncertainty, positively impacting market confidence in OpenAI's valuation prospects.
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