OpenAI’s March 2026 funding round of $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation anchors current trader sentiment for its end-of-August 2026 mark, with the $800–900 billion band capturing the largest share of implied probability. Heavy losses, projected revenue near $20–25 billion annualized, and ongoing infrastructure spending continue to weigh on multiples, while Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion IPO target supports the secondary $900 billion–$1 trillion range. Recent reporting shows the company confidentially filed for an IPO but is now leaning toward a 2027 debut rather than late 2026, removing near-term catalysts that could shift the private valuation before month-end. Absent a new round or major benchmark release, the market-implied odds reflect limited movement from the established $852 billion level in the remaining weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$800-$900B 60%
$900B-$1.00T 25%
$1.00-$1.10T 11%
$600-$700B 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<$600B
3%
$600-$700B
8%
$700-$800B
5%
$800-$900B
60%
$900B-$1.00T
25%
$1.00-$1.10T
11%
$1.10-$1.20T
5%
$1.20-$1.30T
5%
$1.30T+
4%
$800-$900B 60%
$900B-$1.00T 25%
$1.00-$1.10T 11%
$600-$700B 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<$600B
$49 Vol.
3%
$600-$700B
$30 Vol.
8%
$700-$800B
$30 Vol.
5%
$800-$900B
$599 Vol.
60%
$900B-$1.00T
$422 Vol.
25%
$1.00-$1.10T
$30 Vol.
11%
$1.10-$1.20T
$30 Vol.
5%
$1.20-$1.30T
$30 Vol.
5%
$1.30T+
$30 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for the last trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the last trading day of the specified month by 1:00 PM ET on the day following the last trading day of the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the last trading day of the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider the company’s public market capitalization on the last trading day of the specified month.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data. The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.OpenAI’s March 2026 funding round of $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation anchors current trader sentiment for its end-of-August 2026 mark, with the $800–900 billion band capturing the largest share of implied probability. Heavy losses, projected revenue near $20–25 billion annualized, and ongoing infrastructure spending continue to weigh on multiples, while Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion IPO target supports the secondary $900 billion–$1 trillion range. Recent reporting shows the company confidentially filed for an IPO but is now leaning toward a 2027 debut rather than late 2026, removing near-term catalysts that could shift the private valuation before month-end. Absent a new round or major benchmark release, the market-implied odds reflect limited movement from the established $852 billion level in the remaining weeks.
This market will resolve according to OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for the last trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the last trading day of the specified month by 1:00 PM ET on the day following the last trading day of the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the last trading day of the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider the company’s public market capitalization on the last trading day of the specified month.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data. The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the last trading day of the specified month by 1:00 PM ET on the day following the last trading day of the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the last trading day of the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider the company’s public market capitalization on the last trading day of the specified month.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data. The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,250End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:26 PM ETThis market will resolve according to OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for the last trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the last trading day of the specified month by 1:00 PM ET on the day following the last trading day of the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the last trading day of the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider the company’s public market capitalization on the last trading day of the specified month.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data. The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.OpenAI’s March 2026 funding round of $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation anchors current trader sentiment for its end-of-August 2026 mark, with the $800–900 billion band capturing the largest share of implied probability. Heavy losses, projected revenue near $20–25 billion annualized, and ongoing infrastructure spending continue to weigh on multiples, while Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion IPO target supports the secondary $900 billion–$1 trillion range. Recent reporting shows the company confidentially filed for an IPO but is now leaning toward a 2027 debut rather than late 2026, removing near-term catalysts that could shift the private valuation before month-end. Absent a new round or major benchmark release, the market-implied odds reflect limited movement from the established $852 billion level in the remaining weeks.
This market will resolve according to OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for the last trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the last trading day of the specified month by 1:00 PM ET on the day following the last trading day of the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the last trading day of the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider the company’s public market capitalization on the last trading day of the specified month.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data. The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the last trading day of the specified month by 1:00 PM ET on the day following the last trading day of the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the last trading day of the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider the company’s public market capitalization on the last trading day of the specified month.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data. The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Volume
$1,250End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:26 PM ETOpenAI’s March 2026 funding round of $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation anchors current trader sentiment for its end-of-August 2026 mark, with the $800–900 billion band capturing the largest share of implied probability. Heavy losses, projected revenue near $20–25 billion annualized, and ongoing infrastructure spending continue to weigh on multiples, while Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion IPO target supports the secondary $900 billion–$1 trillion range. Recent reporting shows the company confidentially filed for an IPO but is now leaning toward a 2027 debut rather than late 2026, removing near-term catalysts that could shift the private valuation before month-end. Absent a new round or major benchmark release, the market-implied odds reflect limited movement from the established $852 billion level in the remaining weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions