OpenAI’s decision not to issue a formal announcement declaring AGI achievement with the September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra underpins the 72.5% market-implied probability for “No.” President Greg Brockman described entering the “AGI era” and suggested the model could mark the milestone, while Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang echoed the claim, but CEO Sam Altman recently called AGI a poorly defined or marketing term. Independent benchmarks showed lower results than OpenAI’s reported figures on ARC-AGI-3 and other tests, with the benchmark’s creators explicitly declining to label it AGI. The company’s charter definition—highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work—remains unmet in public releases, despite internal progress toward automated research tools targeted for 2028. Traders appear to weigh these cautious signals and definitional hurdles more heavily than hype around recent capabilities.