OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3, 2026, has fueled debate but not triggered a formal announcement of AGI achievement, keeping the “No” probability at 72.5% on the market for such a declaration before 2027. President Greg Brockman described entering the “AGI era” and suggested the model could later be viewed as the milestone, while CEO Sam Altman continues to label AGI a vague “marketing term.” Benchmark disputes, including ARC Prize’s rejection of OpenAI’s custom 99.9% score in favor of a standard 62.7% result, and the company’s strict definition of outperforming humans at most economically valuable work, reinforce trader caution. Key near-term catalysts include further capability disclosures or an automated AI researcher milestone targeted for 2028.