**Recent energy price surges tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed euro-area headline inflation projections higher, prompting the ECB to deliver a 25-basis-point hike in June 2026 and positioning markets to price another identical move at the September 9–10 meeting.** Eurosystem staff forecasts now show 2026 inflation averaging 3.0 percent, with core readings also revised upward as higher energy costs feed through to goods and services. Reuters polling in mid-July found 70 percent of economists expecting exactly one additional hike this year, most likely in September, reflecting the Governing Council’s data-dependent stance and willingness to act against second-round effects. Officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have emphasized risks from persistent core inflation and wage pressures, reinforcing trader consensus around a further modest tightening. While downside risks to growth and any rapid de-escalation in energy markets could alter the path, current pricing embeds the view that inflation momentum remains the dominant near-term driver through the September decision window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于加息25个基点 88%
维持不变 11%
加息50个基点或以上 1.7%
降息25个基点 <1%
$173,138 交易量
$173,138 交易量
2026-09-10
降息50个基点以上
<1%
降息25个基点
1%
维持不变
11%
加息25个基点
88%
加息50个基点或以上
2%
加息25个基点 88%
维持不变 11%
加息50个基点或以上 1.7%
降息25个基点 <1%
$173,138 交易量
$173,138 交易量
2026-09-10
降息50个基点以上
$13,929 交易量
<1%
降息25个基点
$23,742 交易量
1%
维持不变
$50,358 交易量
11%
加息25个基点
$58,530 交易量
88%
加息50个基点或以上
$26,579 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Recent energy price surges tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed euro-area headline inflation projections higher, prompting the ECB to deliver a 25-basis-point hike in June 2026 and positioning markets to price another identical move at the September 9–10 meeting.**
Eurosystem staff forecasts now show 2026 inflation averaging 3.0 percent, with core readings also revised upward as higher energy costs feed through to goods and services. Reuters polling in mid-July found 70 percent of economists expecting exactly one additional hike this year, most likely in September, reflecting the Governing Council’s data-dependent stance and willingness to act against second-round effects. Officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have emphasized risks from persistent core inflation and wage pressures, reinforcing trader consensus around a further modest tightening.
While downside risks to growth and any rapid de-escalation in energy markets could alter the path, current pricing embeds the view that inflation momentum remains the dominant near-term driver through the September decision window.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ET
交易量
$173,138结束日期
2026-09-10市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Recent energy price surges tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed euro-area headline inflation projections higher, prompting the ECB to deliver a 25-basis-point hike in June 2026 and positioning markets to price another identical move at the September 9–10 meeting.**
Eurosystem staff forecasts now show 2026 inflation averaging 3.0 percent, with core readings also revised upward as higher energy costs feed through to goods and services. Reuters polling in mid-July found 70 percent of economists expecting exactly one additional hike this year, most likely in September, reflecting the Governing Council’s data-dependent stance and willingness to act against second-round effects. Officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have emphasized risks from persistent core inflation and wage pressures, reinforcing trader consensus around a further modest tightening.
While downside risks to growth and any rapid de-escalation in energy markets could alter the path, current pricing embeds the view that inflation momentum remains the dominant near-term driver through the September decision window.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
交易量
$173,138结束日期
2026-09-10市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent energy price surges tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed euro-area headline inflation projections higher, prompting the ECB to deliver a 25-basis-point hike in June 2026 and positioning markets to price another identical move at the September 9–10 meeting.** Eurosystem staff forecasts now show 2026 inflation averaging 3.0 percent, with core readings also revised upward as higher energy costs feed through to goods and services. Reuters polling in mid-July found 70 percent of economists expecting exactly one additional hike this year, most likely in September, reflecting the Governing Council’s data-dependent stance and willingness to act against second-round effects. Officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have emphasized risks from persistent core inflation and wage pressures, reinforcing trader consensus around a further modest tightening. While downside risks to growth and any rapid de-escalation in energy markets could alter the path, current pricing embeds the view that inflation momentum remains the dominant near-term driver through the September decision window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题