Recent ECB staff projections, revised downward to 0.8% Eurozone GDP growth for 2026 amid the Middle East conflict's impact on energy prices and confidence, align closely with the 66.6% market-implied probability for the 0-1.0% outcome. Weak Q2 indicators, including PMI readings signaling contraction and softening industrial production, have reinforced trader consensus around subdued expansion, while the ECB's June 25-basis-point rate hike reflects persistent inflation pressures at 3.0% projected for the year. The 24.5% odds on 1.0-2.0% growth incorporate limited relief from a provisional U.S.-Iran agreement that could ease energy costs later in 2026, though downside risks from geopolitical uncertainty and higher borrowing costs continue to cap upside revisions ahead of September data releases.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0-1.0% 66.7%
1.0-2.0% 25%
低于0% 4.2%
4.0-5.0% <1%
$28,966 交易量
$28,966 交易量
2027-01-31
低于0%
4%
0-1.0%
67%
1.0-2.0%
25%
2.0-3.0%
<1%
3.0-4.0%
<1%
4.0-5.0%
1%
5.0-6.0%
<1%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0%及以上
<1%
0-1.0% 66.7%
1.0-2.0% 25%
低于0% 4.2%
4.0-5.0% <1%
$28,966 交易量
$28,966 交易量
2027-01-31
低于0%
$1,615 交易量
4%
0-1.0%
$10,889 交易量
67%
1.0-2.0%
$6,957 交易量
25%
2.0-3.0%
$1,121 交易量
<1%
3.0-4.0%
$1,027 交易量
<1%
4.0-5.0%
$2,108 交易量
1%
5.0-6.0%
$1,127 交易量
<1%
6.0-7.0%
$2,544 交易量
1%
7.0%及以上
$1,579 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECB staff projections, revised downward to 0.8% Eurozone GDP growth for 2026 amid the Middle East conflict's impact on energy prices and confidence, align closely with the 66.6% market-implied probability for the 0-1.0% outcome. Weak Q2 indicators, including PMI readings signaling contraction and softening industrial production, have reinforced trader consensus around subdued expansion, while the ECB's June 25-basis-point rate hike reflects persistent inflation pressures at 3.0% projected for the year. The 24.5% odds on 1.0-2.0% growth incorporate limited relief from a provisional U.S.-Iran agreement that could ease energy costs later in 2026, though downside risks from geopolitical uncertainty and higher borrowing costs continue to cap upside revisions ahead of September data releases.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$28,966结束日期
2027-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECB staff projections, revised downward to 0.8% Eurozone GDP growth for 2026 amid the Middle East conflict's impact on energy prices and confidence, align closely with the 66.6% market-implied probability for the 0-1.0% outcome. Weak Q2 indicators, including PMI readings signaling contraction and softening industrial production, have reinforced trader consensus around subdued expansion, while the ECB's June 25-basis-point rate hike reflects persistent inflation pressures at 3.0% projected for the year. The 24.5% odds on 1.0-2.0% growth incorporate limited relief from a provisional U.S.-Iran agreement that could ease energy costs later in 2026, though downside risks from geopolitical uncertainty and higher borrowing costs continue to cap upside revisions ahead of September data releases.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$28,966结束日期
2027-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent ECB staff projections, revised downward to 0.8% Eurozone GDP growth for 2026 amid the Middle East conflict's impact on energy prices and confidence, align closely with the 66.6% market-implied probability for the 0-1.0% outcome. Weak Q2 indicators, including PMI readings signaling contraction and softening industrial production, have reinforced trader consensus around subdued expansion, while the ECB's June 25-basis-point rate hike reflects persistent inflation pressures at 3.0% projected for the year. The 24.5% odds on 1.0-2.0% growth incorporate limited relief from a provisional U.S.-Iran agreement that could ease energy costs later in 2026, though downside risks from geopolitical uncertainty and higher borrowing costs continue to cap upside revisions ahead of September data releases.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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