Recent downward revisions to 2026 euro area growth forecasts by the ECB, IMF, and OECD—to 0.8-0.9%—anchor trader sentiment around the 0-1.0% outcome at 66.6% implied probability. Energy price shocks from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have weighed on purchasing power and confidence while lifting inflation expectations, prompting cautious policy stances. Q1 GDP contracted on revisions, and while Q2 expanded 0.4% quarter-over-quarter above expectations, leading indicators such as PMI readings signal decelerating momentum. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital consensus on these subdued fundamentals versus historical base rates near 1%, with limited scope for upside absent sustained de-escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0-1.0% 66.7%
1.0-2.0% 25%
低于0% 4.2%
4.0-5.0% <1%
$28,966 交易量
$28,966 交易量
2027-01-31
低于0%
4%
0-1.0%
67%
1.0-2.0%
25%
2.0-3.0%
<1%
3.0-4.0%
<1%
4.0-5.0%
1%
5.0-6.0%
<1%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0%及以上
<1%
0-1.0% 66.7%
1.0-2.0% 25%
低于0% 4.2%
4.0-5.0% <1%
$28,966 交易量
$28,966 交易量
2027-01-31
低于0%
$1,615 交易量
4%
0-1.0%
$10,889 交易量
67%
1.0-2.0%
$6,957 交易量
25%
2.0-3.0%
$1,121 交易量
<1%
3.0-4.0%
$1,027 交易量
<1%
4.0-5.0%
$2,108 交易量
1%
5.0-6.0%
$1,127 交易量
<1%
6.0-7.0%
$2,544 交易量
1%
7.0%及以上
$1,579 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent downward revisions to 2026 euro area growth forecasts by the ECB, IMF, and OECD—to 0.8-0.9%—anchor trader sentiment around the 0-1.0% outcome at 66.6% implied probability. Energy price shocks from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have weighed on purchasing power and confidence while lifting inflation expectations, prompting cautious policy stances. Q1 GDP contracted on revisions, and while Q2 expanded 0.4% quarter-over-quarter above expectations, leading indicators such as PMI readings signal decelerating momentum. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital consensus on these subdued fundamentals versus historical base rates near 1%, with limited scope for upside absent sustained de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$28,966结束日期
2027-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent downward revisions to 2026 euro area growth forecasts by the ECB, IMF, and OECD—to 0.8-0.9%—anchor trader sentiment around the 0-1.0% outcome at 66.6% implied probability. Energy price shocks from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have weighed on purchasing power and confidence while lifting inflation expectations, prompting cautious policy stances. Q1 GDP contracted on revisions, and while Q2 expanded 0.4% quarter-over-quarter above expectations, leading indicators such as PMI readings signal decelerating momentum. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital consensus on these subdued fundamentals versus historical base rates near 1%, with limited scope for upside absent sustained de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$28,966结束日期
2027-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent downward revisions to 2026 euro area growth forecasts by the ECB, IMF, and OECD—to 0.8-0.9%—anchor trader sentiment around the 0-1.0% outcome at 66.6% implied probability. Energy price shocks from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have weighed on purchasing power and confidence while lifting inflation expectations, prompting cautious policy stances. Q1 GDP contracted on revisions, and while Q2 expanded 0.4% quarter-over-quarter above expectations, leading indicators such as PMI readings signal decelerating momentum. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital consensus on these subdued fundamentals versus historical base rates near 1%, with limited scope for upside absent sustained de-escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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