Market-implied odds assign a 92.3% probability to UK annual GDP growth falling in the 1-2% range for 2026, consistent with the latest consensus from the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report and IMF projections centering on 1.1% and 1.0%, respectively. Subdued quarterly expansions—0.6% in Q1 and around 0.3-0.4% in Q2—reflect the drag from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, which have weighed on real household incomes and business confidence while keeping the output gap negative. Independent forecasters surveyed by HM Treasury in August also average 1.1%. A faster dissipation of the energy shock or stronger export momentum could push outcomes toward the upper end of the band, whereas prolonged uncertainty or additional tightening in financial conditions could test the lower bound.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1-2% 92.3%
0-1% 7%
3-4% 1.0%
<0 <1%
$87,701 交易量
$87,701 交易量
2027-02-11
<0
1%
0-1%
7%
1-2%
92%
2-3%
<1%
3-4%
1%
4-5%
<1%
5%及以上
<1%
1-2% 92.3%
0-1% 7%
3-4% 1.0%
<0 <1%
$87,701 交易量
$87,701 交易量
2027-02-11
<0
$12,267 交易量
1%
0-1%
$21,517 交易量
7%
1-2%
$31,436 交易量
92%
2-3%
$5,026 交易量
<1%
3-4%
$3,958 交易量
1%
4-5%
$9,133 交易量
<1%
5%及以上
$4,364 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds assign a 92.3% probability to UK annual GDP growth falling in the 1-2% range for 2026, consistent with the latest consensus from the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report and IMF projections centering on 1.1% and 1.0%, respectively. Subdued quarterly expansions—0.6% in Q1 and around 0.3-0.4% in Q2—reflect the drag from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, which have weighed on real household incomes and business confidence while keeping the output gap negative. Independent forecasters surveyed by HM Treasury in August also average 1.1%. A faster dissipation of the energy shock or stronger export momentum could push outcomes toward the upper end of the band, whereas prolonged uncertainty or additional tightening in financial conditions could test the lower bound.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
交易量
$87,701结束日期
2027-02-12市场开放时间
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds assign a 92.3% probability to UK annual GDP growth falling in the 1-2% range for 2026, consistent with the latest consensus from the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report and IMF projections centering on 1.1% and 1.0%, respectively. Subdued quarterly expansions—0.6% in Q1 and around 0.3-0.4% in Q2—reflect the drag from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, which have weighed on real household incomes and business confidence while keeping the output gap negative. Independent forecasters surveyed by HM Treasury in August also average 1.1%. A faster dissipation of the energy shock or stronger export momentum could push outcomes toward the upper end of the band, whereas prolonged uncertainty or additional tightening in financial conditions could test the lower bound.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$87,701结束日期
2027-02-12市场开放时间
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETMarket-implied odds assign a 92.3% probability to UK annual GDP growth falling in the 1-2% range for 2026, consistent with the latest consensus from the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report and IMF projections centering on 1.1% and 1.0%, respectively. Subdued quarterly expansions—0.6% in Q1 and around 0.3-0.4% in Q2—reflect the drag from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, which have weighed on real household incomes and business confidence while keeping the output gap negative. Independent forecasters surveyed by HM Treasury in August also average 1.1%. A faster dissipation of the energy shock or stronger export momentum could push outcomes toward the upper end of the band, whereas prolonged uncertainty or additional tightening in financial conditions could test the lower bound.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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