Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter rebound from contraction has anchored trader expectations for moderate expansion in the third quarter, yet closely matched probabilities on the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% bins reflect offsetting headwinds from subdued domestic demand, private investment caution amid USMCA review uncertainty, and downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts by Hacienda (now 1-2%) and private analysts (around 1.2%). Resilient exports and nearshoring activity provide support, while headline inflation near 3.3% and Banxico’s hold at the 6.5% policy rate signal a cautious monetary backdrop that limits upside. Key swing factors include incoming industrial production, retail sales, and external demand figures ahead of the October 30 preliminary Q3 release.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1.5-2.0% 33%
2.0-2.5% 31%
2.5-3.0% 16%
1.0-1.5% 10.9%
$25,754 交易量
$25,754 交易量
2026-10-30
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
<1%
1.0-1.5%
11%
1.5-2.0%
33%
2.0-2.5%
31%
2.5-3.0%
16%
3.0-3.5%
1%
3.5%+
3%
1.5-2.0% 33%
2.0-2.5% 31%
2.5-3.0% 16%
1.0-1.5% 10.9%
$25,754 交易量
$25,754 交易量
2026-10-30
<0.5%
$474 交易量
1%
0.5-1.0%
$354 交易量
<1%
1.0-1.5%
$3,438 交易量
11%
1.5-2.0%
$8,548 交易量
33%
2.0-2.5%
$10,918 交易量
31%
2.5-3.0%
$1,153 交易量
16%
3.0-3.5%
$433 交易量
1%
3.5%+
$438 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter rebound from contraction has anchored trader expectations for moderate expansion in the third quarter, yet closely matched probabilities on the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% bins reflect offsetting headwinds from subdued domestic demand, private investment caution amid USMCA review uncertainty, and downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts by Hacienda (now 1-2%) and private analysts (around 1.2%). Resilient exports and nearshoring activity provide support, while headline inflation near 3.3% and Banxico’s hold at the 6.5% policy rate signal a cautious monetary backdrop that limits upside. Key swing factors include incoming industrial production, retail sales, and external demand figures ahead of the October 30 preliminary Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$25,754结束日期
2026-10-30市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETThis market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter rebound from contraction has anchored trader expectations for moderate expansion in the third quarter, yet closely matched probabilities on the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% bins reflect offsetting headwinds from subdued domestic demand, private investment caution amid USMCA review uncertainty, and downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts by Hacienda (now 1-2%) and private analysts (around 1.2%). Resilient exports and nearshoring activity provide support, while headline inflation near 3.3% and Banxico’s hold at the 6.5% policy rate signal a cautious monetary backdrop that limits upside. Key swing factors include incoming industrial production, retail sales, and external demand figures ahead of the October 30 preliminary Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$25,754结束日期
2026-10-30市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRecent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter rebound from contraction has anchored trader expectations for moderate expansion in the third quarter, yet closely matched probabilities on the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% bins reflect offsetting headwinds from subdued domestic demand, private investment caution amid USMCA review uncertainty, and downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts by Hacienda (now 1-2%) and private analysts (around 1.2%). Resilient exports and nearshoring activity provide support, while headline inflation near 3.3% and Banxico’s hold at the 6.5% policy rate signal a cautious monetary backdrop that limits upside. Key swing factors include incoming industrial production, retail sales, and external demand figures ahead of the October 30 preliminary Q3 release.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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