Recent Q2 2026 GDP rebound to 1.4% quarter-over-quarter and 2.1% year-over-year, following a Q1 contraction, anchors trader expectations for moderate Q3 expansion near 1.5-2.5% year-over-year. Weak domestic demand, subdued private investment amid USMCA review uncertainty, and a softening labor market with unemployment near 2.8% limit upside momentum despite resilient exports and nearshoring support. Banxico’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% reflects easing headline inflation to around 3.2% alongside persistent core pressures. Government and private forecasts for full-year 2026 cluster between 1.0% and 2.0%, underscoring downside risks from external demand and policy volatility ahead of the October 30 timely GDP release.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2.0-2.5% 33%
1.5-2.0% 31%
2.5-3.0% 15%
1.0-1.5% 11.6%
$35,160 交易量
$35,160 交易量
2026-10-30
<0.5%
4%
0.5-1.0%
1%
1.0-1.5%
12%
1.5-2.0%
31%
2.0-2.5%
33%
2.5-3.0%
15%
3.0-3.5%
2%
3.5%+
3%
2.0-2.5% 33%
1.5-2.0% 31%
2.5-3.0% 15%
1.0-1.5% 11.6%
$35,160 交易量
$35,160 交易量
2026-10-30
<0.5%
$925 交易量
4%
0.5-1.0%
$721 交易量
1%
1.0-1.5%
$4,037 交易量
12%
1.5-2.0%
$12,208 交易量
31%
2.0-2.5%
$13,729 交易量
33%
2.5-3.0%
$1,929 交易量
15%
3.0-3.5%
$800 交易量
2%
3.5%+
$811 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP rebound to 1.4% quarter-over-quarter and 2.1% year-over-year, following a Q1 contraction, anchors trader expectations for moderate Q3 expansion near 1.5-2.5% year-over-year. Weak domestic demand, subdued private investment amid USMCA review uncertainty, and a softening labor market with unemployment near 2.8% limit upside momentum despite resilient exports and nearshoring support. Banxico’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% reflects easing headline inflation to around 3.2% alongside persistent core pressures. Government and private forecasts for full-year 2026 cluster between 1.0% and 2.0%, underscoring downside risks from external demand and policy volatility ahead of the October 30 timely GDP release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$35,160结束日期
2026-10-30市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETThis market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP rebound to 1.4% quarter-over-quarter and 2.1% year-over-year, following a Q1 contraction, anchors trader expectations for moderate Q3 expansion near 1.5-2.5% year-over-year. Weak domestic demand, subdued private investment amid USMCA review uncertainty, and a softening labor market with unemployment near 2.8% limit upside momentum despite resilient exports and nearshoring support. Banxico’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% reflects easing headline inflation to around 3.2% alongside persistent core pressures. Government and private forecasts for full-year 2026 cluster between 1.0% and 2.0%, underscoring downside risks from external demand and policy volatility ahead of the October 30 timely GDP release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$35,160结束日期
2026-10-30市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRecent Q2 2026 GDP rebound to 1.4% quarter-over-quarter and 2.1% year-over-year, following a Q1 contraction, anchors trader expectations for moderate Q3 expansion near 1.5-2.5% year-over-year. Weak domestic demand, subdued private investment amid USMCA review uncertainty, and a softening labor market with unemployment near 2.8% limit upside momentum despite resilient exports and nearshoring support. Banxico’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% reflects easing headline inflation to around 3.2% alongside persistent core pressures. Government and private forecasts for full-year 2026 cluster between 1.0% and 2.0%, underscoring downside risks from external demand and policy volatility ahead of the October 30 timely GDP release.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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