Trader consensus pricing “No” at 90.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflects sustained normalization of People’s Liberation Army activity around the island, including routine aircraft carrier transits through the Taiwan Strait and reduced air defense identification zone incursions relative to prior peaks. U.S. intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Beijing currently favors achieving unification without the use of force and does not plan an invasion by 2027, aligning with analyst assessments that coercive measures short of war remain the preferred approach through the end of the year. No large-scale mobilization, logistical preparations, or leadership signals of imminent amphibious operations have appeared in recent months. Late developments capable of shifting odds remain limited to rapid escalations from miscalculation during exercises, unforeseen Taiwanese actions, or abrupt U.S. policy changes, though none currently appear imminent within the resolution window.