Recent diplomatic engagement, including the 2026 Trump-Xi Beijing summit, has reinforced a framework of managed strategic competition between the United States and China, emphasizing military-to-military communication channels and trade negotiations to reduce escalation risks in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. Traders assign a 95.7% probability to no direct military clash before 2027 because no major incidents or mobilization signals have emerged in recent months amid ongoing arms sales to Taiwan and joint exercises. This consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing near-term stability. Potential shifts could still arise from accidental collisions during patrols, sudden policy changes on Taiwan arms, or unforeseen crises disrupting the current de-escalation posture.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$171,299 交易量
$171,299 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$171,299 交易量
$171,299 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic engagement, including the 2026 Trump-Xi Beijing summit, has reinforced a framework of managed strategic competition between the United States and China, emphasizing military-to-military communication channels and trade negotiations to reduce escalation risks in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. Traders assign a 95.7% probability to no direct military clash before 2027 because no major incidents or mobilization signals have emerged in recent months amid ongoing arms sales to Taiwan and joint exercises. This consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing near-term stability. Potential shifts could still arise from accidental collisions during patrols, sudden policy changes on Taiwan arms, or unforeseen crises disrupting the current de-escalation posture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
交易量
$171,299结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic engagement, including the 2026 Trump-Xi Beijing summit, has reinforced a framework of managed strategic competition between the United States and China, emphasizing military-to-military communication channels and trade negotiations to reduce escalation risks in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. Traders assign a 95.7% probability to no direct military clash before 2027 because no major incidents or mobilization signals have emerged in recent months amid ongoing arms sales to Taiwan and joint exercises. This consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing near-term stability. Potential shifts could still arise from accidental collisions during patrols, sudden policy changes on Taiwan arms, or unforeseen crises disrupting the current de-escalation posture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$171,299结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic engagement, including the 2026 Trump-Xi Beijing summit, has reinforced a framework of managed strategic competition between the United States and China, emphasizing military-to-military communication channels and trade negotiations to reduce escalation risks in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. Traders assign a 95.7% probability to no direct military clash before 2027 because no major incidents or mobilization signals have emerged in recent months amid ongoing arms sales to Taiwan and joint exercises. This consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing near-term stability. Potential shifts could still arise from accidental collisions during patrols, sudden policy changes on Taiwan arms, or unforeseen crises disrupting the current de-escalation posture.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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