Traders assign a 95.7% implied probability against a direct US-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained diplomatic channels and deliberate crisis management in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. Recent July 2026 incidents involved Chinese coast guard actions against Philippine vessels, yet both Washington and Beijing have emphasized stability, with US-Philippine joint exercises and ongoing talks—including references to a potential Xi visit—helping contain risks. China’s “routine” patrols east of Taiwan reflect lawfare rather than kinetic escalation. This pattern aligns with historical precedents where maritime friction has been de-escalated through back-channel diplomacy. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an accidental collision involving US assets, rapid Taiwanese developments, or abrupt policy shifts by either side within the remaining 2026 window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$170,160 交易量
$170,160 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$170,160 交易量
$170,160 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.7% implied probability against a direct US-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained diplomatic channels and deliberate crisis management in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. Recent July 2026 incidents involved Chinese coast guard actions against Philippine vessels, yet both Washington and Beijing have emphasized stability, with US-Philippine joint exercises and ongoing talks—including references to a potential Xi visit—helping contain risks. China’s “routine” patrols east of Taiwan reflect lawfare rather than kinetic escalation. This pattern aligns with historical precedents where maritime friction has been de-escalated through back-channel diplomacy. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an accidental collision involving US assets, rapid Taiwanese developments, or abrupt policy shifts by either side within the remaining 2026 window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
交易量
$170,160结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.7% implied probability against a direct US-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained diplomatic channels and deliberate crisis management in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. Recent July 2026 incidents involved Chinese coast guard actions against Philippine vessels, yet both Washington and Beijing have emphasized stability, with US-Philippine joint exercises and ongoing talks—including references to a potential Xi visit—helping contain risks. China’s “routine” patrols east of Taiwan reflect lawfare rather than kinetic escalation. This pattern aligns with historical precedents where maritime friction has been de-escalated through back-channel diplomacy. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an accidental collision involving US assets, rapid Taiwanese developments, or abrupt policy shifts by either side within the remaining 2026 window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$170,160结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.7% implied probability against a direct US-China military clash before 2027 due to sustained diplomatic channels and deliberate crisis management in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. Recent July 2026 incidents involved Chinese coast guard actions against Philippine vessels, yet both Washington and Beijing have emphasized stability, with US-Philippine joint exercises and ongoing talks—including references to a potential Xi visit—helping contain risks. China’s “routine” patrols east of Taiwan reflect lawfare rather than kinetic escalation. This pattern aligns with historical precedents where maritime friction has been de-escalated through back-channel diplomacy. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an accidental collision involving US assets, rapid Taiwanese developments, or abrupt policy shifts by either side within the remaining 2026 window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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