Traders assign a 95.7% probability that no direct US-China military clash will occur before 2027, reflecting recent diplomatic signals prioritizing stability, including bilateral emphasis on managing differences ahead of a planned September presidential summit. Ongoing gray-zone frictions in the South China Sea, such as July 2026 coast guard incidents involving the Philippines, have remained contained without triggering US direct intervention or escalation ladders. US defense planning continues to focus on deterrence through alliances and capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, while economic interdependence and mutual awareness of escalation costs reinforce restraint. Scenarios that could still shift odds include miscalculation during allied patrols, rapid changes in Taiwan Strait activity, or breakdowns in high-level dialogue before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$171,459 交易量
$171,459 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$171,459 交易量
$171,459 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.7% probability that no direct US-China military clash will occur before 2027, reflecting recent diplomatic signals prioritizing stability, including bilateral emphasis on managing differences ahead of a planned September presidential summit. Ongoing gray-zone frictions in the South China Sea, such as July 2026 coast guard incidents involving the Philippines, have remained contained without triggering US direct intervention or escalation ladders. US defense planning continues to focus on deterrence through alliances and capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, while economic interdependence and mutual awareness of escalation costs reinforce restraint. Scenarios that could still shift odds include miscalculation during allied patrols, rapid changes in Taiwan Strait activity, or breakdowns in high-level dialogue before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
交易量
$171,459结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.7% probability that no direct US-China military clash will occur before 2027, reflecting recent diplomatic signals prioritizing stability, including bilateral emphasis on managing differences ahead of a planned September presidential summit. Ongoing gray-zone frictions in the South China Sea, such as July 2026 coast guard incidents involving the Philippines, have remained contained without triggering US direct intervention or escalation ladders. US defense planning continues to focus on deterrence through alliances and capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, while economic interdependence and mutual awareness of escalation costs reinforce restraint. Scenarios that could still shift odds include miscalculation during allied patrols, rapid changes in Taiwan Strait activity, or breakdowns in high-level dialogue before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$171,459结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.7% probability that no direct US-China military clash will occur before 2027, reflecting recent diplomatic signals prioritizing stability, including bilateral emphasis on managing differences ahead of a planned September presidential summit. Ongoing gray-zone frictions in the South China Sea, such as July 2026 coast guard incidents involving the Philippines, have remained contained without triggering US direct intervention or escalation ladders. US defense planning continues to focus on deterrence through alliances and capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, while economic interdependence and mutual awareness of escalation costs reinforce restraint. Scenarios that could still shift odds include miscalculation during allied patrols, rapid changes in Taiwan Strait activity, or breakdowns in high-level dialogue before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题