Recent diplomatic stabilization between Washington and Beijing, anchored by the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit and resulting agreements on agricultural purchases, aircraft sales, and strategic stability talks, has reinforced managed competition over direct confrontation. Ongoing gray-zone activities around Taiwan, including maritime enforcement operations and carrier transits, remain below the threshold of U.S. military involvement, consistent with historical patterns of deterrence and economic interdependence. Traders assign 95.7% probability to no clash before 2027 largely because scheduled leader engagements and supply-chain recalibrations have reduced escalation risks in the near term. Unforeseen miscalculations during exercises, abrupt shifts in Taiwan policy, or third-party incidents in the Strait could still alter these odds within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$171,459 交易量
$171,459 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$171,459 交易量
$171,459 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic stabilization between Washington and Beijing, anchored by the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit and resulting agreements on agricultural purchases, aircraft sales, and strategic stability talks, has reinforced managed competition over direct confrontation. Ongoing gray-zone activities around Taiwan, including maritime enforcement operations and carrier transits, remain below the threshold of U.S. military involvement, consistent with historical patterns of deterrence and economic interdependence. Traders assign 95.7% probability to no clash before 2027 largely because scheduled leader engagements and supply-chain recalibrations have reduced escalation risks in the near term. Unforeseen miscalculations during exercises, abrupt shifts in Taiwan policy, or third-party incidents in the Strait could still alter these odds within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
交易量
$171,459结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic stabilization between Washington and Beijing, anchored by the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit and resulting agreements on agricultural purchases, aircraft sales, and strategic stability talks, has reinforced managed competition over direct confrontation. Ongoing gray-zone activities around Taiwan, including maritime enforcement operations and carrier transits, remain below the threshold of U.S. military involvement, consistent with historical patterns of deterrence and economic interdependence. Traders assign 95.7% probability to no clash before 2027 largely because scheduled leader engagements and supply-chain recalibrations have reduced escalation risks in the near term. Unforeseen miscalculations during exercises, abrupt shifts in Taiwan policy, or third-party incidents in the Strait could still alter these odds within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$171,459结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic stabilization between Washington and Beijing, anchored by the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit and resulting agreements on agricultural purchases, aircraft sales, and strategic stability talks, has reinforced managed competition over direct confrontation. Ongoing gray-zone activities around Taiwan, including maritime enforcement operations and carrier transits, remain below the threshold of U.S. military involvement, consistent with historical patterns of deterrence and economic interdependence. Traders assign 95.7% probability to no clash before 2027 largely because scheduled leader engagements and supply-chain recalibrations have reduced escalation risks in the near term. Unforeseen miscalculations during exercises, abrupt shifts in Taiwan policy, or third-party incidents in the Strait could still alter these odds within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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