EU sanctions adopted in 2025 explicitly prohibit operations, maintenance, or use of the Nord Stream pipelines as part of a broader phase-out of Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027, while Germany has maintained a firm policy against reactivation under Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The 2022 sabotage left most lines damaged with no repair or certification process underway, and only one Nord Stream 2 string remains intact amid ongoing mothballing considerations by Russia. Europe’s sustained shift to LNG from alternative suppliers and reduced Russian gas dependence further reinforce these barriers. Traders’ near-certain consensus on no flow before 2027 reflects these entrenched legal, technical, and policy constraints, though a rapid diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine conflict or unexpected sanctions reversal could still alter the timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
3% 概率
$162,524 交易量
$162,524 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 概率
$162,524 交易量
$162,524 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
EU sanctions adopted in 2025 explicitly prohibit operations, maintenance, or use of the Nord Stream pipelines as part of a broader phase-out of Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027, while Germany has maintained a firm policy against reactivation under Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The 2022 sabotage left most lines damaged with no repair or certification process underway, and only one Nord Stream 2 string remains intact amid ongoing mothballing considerations by Russia. Europe’s sustained shift to LNG from alternative suppliers and reduced Russian gas dependence further reinforce these barriers. Traders’ near-certain consensus on no flow before 2027 reflects these entrenched legal, technical, and policy constraints, though a rapid diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine conflict or unexpected sanctions reversal could still alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET
交易量
$162,524结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
EU sanctions adopted in 2025 explicitly prohibit operations, maintenance, or use of the Nord Stream pipelines as part of a broader phase-out of Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027, while Germany has maintained a firm policy against reactivation under Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The 2022 sabotage left most lines damaged with no repair or certification process underway, and only one Nord Stream 2 string remains intact amid ongoing mothballing considerations by Russia. Europe’s sustained shift to LNG from alternative suppliers and reduced Russian gas dependence further reinforce these barriers. Traders’ near-certain consensus on no flow before 2027 reflects these entrenched legal, technical, and policy constraints, though a rapid diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine conflict or unexpected sanctions reversal could still alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$162,524结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETEU sanctions adopted in 2025 explicitly prohibit operations, maintenance, or use of the Nord Stream pipelines as part of a broader phase-out of Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027, while Germany has maintained a firm policy against reactivation under Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The 2022 sabotage left most lines damaged with no repair or certification process underway, and only one Nord Stream 2 string remains intact amid ongoing mothballing considerations by Russia. Europe’s sustained shift to LNG from alternative suppliers and reduced Russian gas dependence further reinforce these barriers. Traders’ near-certain consensus on no flow before 2027 reflects these entrenched legal, technical, and policy constraints, though a rapid diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine conflict or unexpected sanctions reversal could still alter the timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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