Traders see limited prospects for a comprehensive federal AI framework passing before 2028 because multiple bipartisan proposals, including the Great American AI Act discussion draft and related Frontier Act provisions on audits and transparency for frontier models, remain stalled in committee despite summer markup progress. Partisan divides over preemption of state laws, liability standards, and regulatory scope have prevented floor votes, while the Trump administration's preference for lighter-touch executive actions and industry input has slowed momentum. With midterms approaching and the 119th Congress facing a compressed calendar, the absence of unified leadership support or a major safety incident to force consensus reinforces the 58% market-implied odds against enactment in the remaining timeframe.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
42% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
42% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation establishing a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence becomes law in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories:
(1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems.
(2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category.
The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act.
Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors.
Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders see limited prospects for a comprehensive federal AI framework passing before 2028 because multiple bipartisan proposals, including the Great American AI Act discussion draft and related Frontier Act provisions on audits and transparency for frontier models, remain stalled in committee despite summer markup progress. Partisan divides over preemption of state laws, liability standards, and regulatory scope have prevented floor votes, while the Trump administration's preference for lighter-touch executive actions and industry input has slowed momentum. With midterms approaching and the 119th Congress facing a compressed calendar, the absence of unified leadership support or a major safety incident to force consensus reinforces the 58% market-implied odds against enactment in the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation establishing a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence becomes law in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories:
(1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems.
(2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category.
The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act.
Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors.
Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories:
(1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems.
(2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category.
The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act.
Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors.
Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 5:06 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 5:06 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation establishing a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence becomes law in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories:
(1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems.
(2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category.
The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act.
Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors.
Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders see limited prospects for a comprehensive federal AI framework passing before 2028 because multiple bipartisan proposals, including the Great American AI Act discussion draft and related Frontier Act provisions on audits and transparency for frontier models, remain stalled in committee despite summer markup progress. Partisan divides over preemption of state laws, liability standards, and regulatory scope have prevented floor votes, while the Trump administration's preference for lighter-touch executive actions and industry input has slowed momentum. With midterms approaching and the 119th Congress facing a compressed calendar, the absence of unified leadership support or a major safety incident to force consensus reinforces the 58% market-implied odds against enactment in the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation establishing a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence becomes law in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories:
(1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems.
(2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category.
The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act.
Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors.
Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories:
(1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems.
(2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category.
The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act.
Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors.
Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 5:06 PM ETTraders see limited prospects for a comprehensive federal AI framework passing before 2028 because multiple bipartisan proposals, including the Great American AI Act discussion draft and related Frontier Act provisions on audits and transparency for frontier models, remain stalled in committee despite summer markup progress. Partisan divides over preemption of state laws, liability standards, and regulatory scope have prevented floor votes, while the Trump administration's preference for lighter-touch executive actions and industry input has slowed momentum. With midterms approaching and the 119th Congress facing a compressed calendar, the absence of unified leadership support or a major safety incident to force consensus reinforces the 58% market-implied odds against enactment in the remaining timeframe.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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