Bipartisan proposals such as the FRONTIER Act and Great American AI Act have advanced through House committees with provisions for frontier model transparency, incident reporting, and independent audits, while Senate leaders including Thune, Cruz, and Klobuchar continue negotiations on liability standards and Commerce Department oversight. However, House Energy and Commerce Chairman Guthrie has signaled reluctance to advance major legislation this year, citing complexity and avoiding rushed lame-duck action, and the chamber is set to recess until after November midterms. Senate timelines remain uncertain amid partisan gaps on enforcement details, presidential opposition to new regulation, and a crowded calendar. These procedural and political hurdles sustain trader consensus that a comprehensive AI safety bill is unlikely to reach enactment before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
11% 概率
$130,477 交易量
$130,477 交易量
2026-12-31
是
11% 概率
$130,477 交易量
$130,477 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Bipartisan proposals such as the FRONTIER Act and Great American AI Act have advanced through House committees with provisions for frontier model transparency, incident reporting, and independent audits, while Senate leaders including Thune, Cruz, and Klobuchar continue negotiations on liability standards and Commerce Department oversight. However, House Energy and Commerce Chairman Guthrie has signaled reluctance to advance major legislation this year, citing complexity and avoiding rushed lame-duck action, and the chamber is set to recess until after November midterms. Senate timelines remain uncertain amid partisan gaps on enforcement details, presidential opposition to new regulation, and a crowded calendar. These procedural and political hurdles sustain trader consensus that a comprehensive AI safety bill is unlikely to reach enactment before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
交易量
$130,477结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Bipartisan proposals such as the FRONTIER Act and Great American AI Act have advanced through House committees with provisions for frontier model transparency, incident reporting, and independent audits, while Senate leaders including Thune, Cruz, and Klobuchar continue negotiations on liability standards and Commerce Department oversight. However, House Energy and Commerce Chairman Guthrie has signaled reluctance to advance major legislation this year, citing complexity and avoiding rushed lame-duck action, and the chamber is set to recess until after November midterms. Senate timelines remain uncertain amid partisan gaps on enforcement details, presidential opposition to new regulation, and a crowded calendar. These procedural and political hurdles sustain trader consensus that a comprehensive AI safety bill is unlikely to reach enactment before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$130,477结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETBipartisan proposals such as the FRONTIER Act and Great American AI Act have advanced through House committees with provisions for frontier model transparency, incident reporting, and independent audits, while Senate leaders including Thune, Cruz, and Klobuchar continue negotiations on liability standards and Commerce Department oversight. However, House Energy and Commerce Chairman Guthrie has signaled reluctance to advance major legislation this year, citing complexity and avoiding rushed lame-duck action, and the chamber is set to recess until after November midterms. Senate timelines remain uncertain amid partisan gaps on enforcement details, presidential opposition to new regulation, and a crowded calendar. These procedural and political hurdles sustain trader consensus that a comprehensive AI safety bill is unlikely to reach enactment before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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