Recent September model releases from Anthropic (Claude Fable 5.1), OpenAI (GPT-6 Astra), Google DeepMind (Gemini 3.8 Flash), and Meta (Muse Spark 1.3) have compressed the frontier, with top large language models clustered within a few points on benchmarks like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and Vals. This tight race, alongside efficiency gains from Chinese labs such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Alibaba’s Qwen series, drives the closely matched trader sentiment across multiple contenders for third place by late November. Key swing factors include upcoming enterprise adoption metrics, agentic capabilities in coding and cybersecurity, cost-performance tradeoffs, and any further safety or regulatory developments that could shift positioning before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Meta 39%
谷歌 36%
阿里巴巴 12%
Moonshot 7.1%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Meta
39%
谷歌
36%
阿里巴巴
12%
Moonshot
7%
OpenAI
5%
Z.ai
4%
英伟达
4%
Anthropic
3%
字节跳动
3%
微软
3%
小米
3%
百度
3%
亚马逊
3%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
美团
1%
腾讯
1%
StepFun
1%
Meta 39%
谷歌 36%
阿里巴巴 12%
Moonshot 7.1%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Meta
$1,894 交易量
39%
谷歌
$778 交易量
36%
阿里巴巴
$212 交易量
12%
Moonshot
$81 交易量
7%
OpenAI
$67 交易量
5%
Z.ai
$67 交易量
4%
英伟达
$67 交易量
4%
Anthropic
$127 交易量
3%
字节跳动
$75 交易量
3%
微软
$87 交易量
3%
小米
$88 交易量
3%
百度
$128 交易量
3%
亚马逊
$67 交易量
3%
SpaceXAI
$67 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$61 交易量
1%
Thinky
$71 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$71 交易量
1%
Mistral
$61 交易量
1%
美团
$61 交易量
1%
腾讯
$71 交易量
1%
StepFun
$61 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent September model releases from Anthropic (Claude Fable 5.1), OpenAI (GPT-6 Astra), Google DeepMind (Gemini 3.8 Flash), and Meta (Muse Spark 1.3) have compressed the frontier, with top large language models clustered within a few points on benchmarks like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and Vals. This tight race, alongside efficiency gains from Chinese labs such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Alibaba’s Qwen series, drives the closely matched trader sentiment across multiple contenders for third place by late November. Key swing factors include upcoming enterprise adoption metrics, agentic capabilities in coding and cybersecurity, cost-performance tradeoffs, and any further safety or regulatory developments that could shift positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ET
交易量
$4,257结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent September model releases from Anthropic (Claude Fable 5.1), OpenAI (GPT-6 Astra), Google DeepMind (Gemini 3.8 Flash), and Meta (Muse Spark 1.3) have compressed the frontier, with top large language models clustered within a few points on benchmarks like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and Vals. This tight race, alongside efficiency gains from Chinese labs such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Alibaba’s Qwen series, drives the closely matched trader sentiment across multiple contenders for third place by late November. Key swing factors include upcoming enterprise adoption metrics, agentic capabilities in coding and cybersecurity, cost-performance tradeoffs, and any further safety or regulatory developments that could shift positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$4,257结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETRecent September model releases from Anthropic (Claude Fable 5.1), OpenAI (GPT-6 Astra), Google DeepMind (Gemini 3.8 Flash), and Meta (Muse Spark 1.3) have compressed the frontier, with top large language models clustered within a few points on benchmarks like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and Vals. This tight race, alongside efficiency gains from Chinese labs such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Alibaba’s Qwen series, drives the closely matched trader sentiment across multiple contenders for third place by late November. Key swing factors include upcoming enterprise adoption metrics, agentic capabilities in coding and cybersecurity, cost-performance tradeoffs, and any further safety or regulatory developments that could shift positioning before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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