Both OpenAI and Anthropic have released detailed internal metrics showing rapid AI-driven acceleration in their own development pipelines, with Claude authoring over 80% of Anthropic’s merged production code as of May 2026 and leading 26% of R&D tasks by August while collaborating on 90% overall. OpenAI reached its automated research intern milestone in September 2026, logging 3.1 agent workdays per human day and introducing an RSI Index benchmark that improved across GPT-5 variants. These gains reflect genuine progress in agentic workflows and experiment iteration, yet both labs stress that full recursive self-improvement—autonomous design of successor models—remains unrealized and requires continued human oversight. Trader sentiment hinges on whether near-term model releases or internal benchmarks cross into verifiable autonomy claims before the 2028 automated-researcher target, amid executive warnings on alignment risks and industry calls for coordinated slowdowns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-10-31
2026年10月31日
10%
2026 年 12 月 31 日
12%
$540 交易量
2026年10月31日
$272 交易量
10%
2026 年 12 月 31 日
$268 交易量
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Both OpenAI and Anthropic have released detailed internal metrics showing rapid AI-driven acceleration in their own development pipelines, with Claude authoring over 80% of Anthropic’s merged production code as of May 2026 and leading 26% of R&D tasks by August while collaborating on 90% overall. OpenAI reached its automated research intern milestone in September 2026, logging 3.1 agent workdays per human day and introducing an RSI Index benchmark that improved across GPT-5 variants. These gains reflect genuine progress in agentic workflows and experiment iteration, yet both labs stress that full recursive self-improvement—autonomous design of successor models—remains unrealized and requires continued human oversight. Trader sentiment hinges on whether near-term model releases or internal benchmarks cross into verifiable autonomy claims before the 2028 automated-researcher target, amid executive warnings on alignment risks and industry calls for coordinated slowdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ET
交易量
$540结束日期
2028-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Both OpenAI and Anthropic have released detailed internal metrics showing rapid AI-driven acceleration in their own development pipelines, with Claude authoring over 80% of Anthropic’s merged production code as of May 2026 and leading 26% of R&D tasks by August while collaborating on 90% overall. OpenAI reached its automated research intern milestone in September 2026, logging 3.1 agent workdays per human day and introducing an RSI Index benchmark that improved across GPT-5 variants. These gains reflect genuine progress in agentic workflows and experiment iteration, yet both labs stress that full recursive self-improvement—autonomous design of successor models—remains unrealized and requires continued human oversight. Trader sentiment hinges on whether near-term model releases or internal benchmarks cross into verifiable autonomy claims before the 2028 automated-researcher target, amid executive warnings on alignment risks and industry calls for coordinated slowdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$540结束日期
2028-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETBoth OpenAI and Anthropic have released detailed internal metrics showing rapid AI-driven acceleration in their own development pipelines, with Claude authoring over 80% of Anthropic’s merged production code as of May 2026 and leading 26% of R&D tasks by August while collaborating on 90% overall. OpenAI reached its automated research intern milestone in September 2026, logging 3.1 agent workdays per human day and introducing an RSI Index benchmark that improved across GPT-5 variants. These gains reflect genuine progress in agentic workflows and experiment iteration, yet both labs stress that full recursive self-improvement—autonomous design of successor models—remains unrealized and requires continued human oversight. Trader sentiment hinges on whether near-term model releases or internal benchmarks cross into verifiable autonomy claims before the 2028 automated-researcher target, amid executive warnings on alignment risks and industry calls for coordinated slowdowns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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