**In the contested race for second-best AI lab by late November, trader sentiment reflects a tight frontier where benchmark leadership, enterprise traction, and cost-efficiency are shifting rapidly among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and rising Chinese challengers.** Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops several intelligence indices with strong agentic and coding performance, backed by a ~$65B+ revenue run rate and an imminent IPO push, yet its second-place odds sit at just 16.5% as markets weigh whether it or OpenAI holds the top spot. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra release and massive consumer distribution keep it favored overall but priced low for second at 7.5%. Google’s steady Gemini 3.8 updates and integrated stack support its 43% implied probability, while Meta’s open-weight momentum and efficient Chinese models from Moonshot (Kimi) and Alibaba (Qwen) add volatility through lower pricing and narrowing capability gaps. Upcoming model iterations, safety debates, and IPO timelines remain key swing factors in this closely matched field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于谷歌 43%
Meta 25%
Anthropic 17%
Moonshot 8.2%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
谷歌
43%
Meta
25%
Anthropic
17%
Moonshot
8%
阿里巴巴
7%
OpenAI
7%
SpaceXAI
5%
百度
3%
Z.ai
3%
小米
1%
DeepSeek
1%
亚马逊
1%
字节跳动
1%
Thinky
1%
美团
1%
StepFun
1%
英伟达
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
微软
1%
腾讯
1%
谷歌 43%
Meta 25%
Anthropic 17%
Moonshot 8.2%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
谷歌
$2,281 交易量
43%
Meta
$916 交易量
25%
Anthropic
$636 交易量
17%
Moonshot
$286 交易量
8%
阿里巴巴
$200 交易量
7%
OpenAI
$192 交易量
7%
SpaceXAI
$187 交易量
5%
百度
$187 交易量
3%
Z.ai
$187 交易量
3%
小米
$187 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$176 交易量
1%
亚马逊
$186 交易量
1%
字节跳动
$197 交易量
1%
Thinky
$187 交易量
1%
美团
$187 交易量
1%
StepFun
$176 交易量
1%
英伟达
$187 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$187 交易量
1%
Mistral
$176 交易量
1%
微软
$176 交易量
1%
腾讯
$196 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**In the contested race for second-best AI lab by late November, trader sentiment reflects a tight frontier where benchmark leadership, enterprise traction, and cost-efficiency are shifting rapidly among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and rising Chinese challengers.** Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops several intelligence indices with strong agentic and coding performance, backed by a ~$65B+ revenue run rate and an imminent IPO push, yet its second-place odds sit at just 16.5% as markets weigh whether it or OpenAI holds the top spot. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra release and massive consumer distribution keep it favored overall but priced low for second at 7.5%. Google’s steady Gemini 3.8 updates and integrated stack support its 43% implied probability, while Meta’s open-weight momentum and efficient Chinese models from Moonshot (Kimi) and Alibaba (Qwen) add volatility through lower pricing and narrowing capability gaps. Upcoming model iterations, safety debates, and IPO timelines remain key swing factors in this closely matched field.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$7,293结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**In the contested race for second-best AI lab by late November, trader sentiment reflects a tight frontier where benchmark leadership, enterprise traction, and cost-efficiency are shifting rapidly among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and rising Chinese challengers.** Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops several intelligence indices with strong agentic and coding performance, backed by a ~$65B+ revenue run rate and an imminent IPO push, yet its second-place odds sit at just 16.5% as markets weigh whether it or OpenAI holds the top spot. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra release and massive consumer distribution keep it favored overall but priced low for second at 7.5%. Google’s steady Gemini 3.8 updates and integrated stack support its 43% implied probability, while Meta’s open-weight momentum and efficient Chinese models from Moonshot (Kimi) and Alibaba (Qwen) add volatility through lower pricing and narrowing capability gaps. Upcoming model iterations, safety debates, and IPO timelines remain key swing factors in this closely matched field.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$7,293结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET**In the contested race for second-best AI lab by late November, trader sentiment reflects a tight frontier where benchmark leadership, enterprise traction, and cost-efficiency are shifting rapidly among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and rising Chinese challengers.** Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently tops several intelligence indices with strong agentic and coding performance, backed by a ~$65B+ revenue run rate and an imminent IPO push, yet its second-place odds sit at just 16.5% as markets weigh whether it or OpenAI holds the top spot. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra release and massive consumer distribution keep it favored overall but priced low for second at 7.5%. Google’s steady Gemini 3.8 updates and integrated stack support its 43% implied probability, while Meta’s open-weight momentum and efficient Chinese models from Moonshot (Kimi) and Alibaba (Qwen) add volatility through lower pricing and narrowing capability gaps. Upcoming model iterations, safety debates, and IPO timelines remain key swing factors in this closely matched field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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