Anthropic's advance toward an October Nasdaq listing, backed by its June confidential S-1 filing and reports of mid-October marketing, drives the 94% market-implied probability it will IPO before OpenAI. Recent statements from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman explicitly ruled out a 2026 debut, citing safety and alignment priorities for its large language models, shifting the company toward a 2027 timeline despite its own June filing. This divergence reflects Anthropic's faster progress through the IPO process and stronger revenue trajectory, while OpenAI weighs public-market scrutiny. Key upcoming catalysts include Anthropic's final prospectus release and any shifts in AI safety regulations that could delay either timeline, though sudden acceleration by OpenAI remains a low-probability wildcard.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic或OpenAI会先上市吗？
Anthropic或OpenAI会先上市吗？
Anthropic
94% 概率
$366,812 交易量
$366,812 交易量
2027-12-30
Anthropic
94% 概率
$366,812 交易量
$366,812 交易量
2027-12-30
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's advance toward an October Nasdaq listing, backed by its June confidential S-1 filing and reports of mid-October marketing, drives the 94% market-implied probability it will IPO before OpenAI. Recent statements from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman explicitly ruled out a 2026 debut, citing safety and alignment priorities for its large language models, shifting the company toward a 2027 timeline despite its own June filing. This divergence reflects Anthropic's faster progress through the IPO process and stronger revenue trajectory, while OpenAI weighs public-market scrutiny. Key upcoming catalysts include Anthropic's final prospectus release and any shifts in AI safety regulations that could delay either timeline, though sudden acceleration by OpenAI remains a low-probability wildcard.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
交易量
$366,812结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's advance toward an October Nasdaq listing, backed by its June confidential S-1 filing and reports of mid-October marketing, drives the 94% market-implied probability it will IPO before OpenAI. Recent statements from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman explicitly ruled out a 2026 debut, citing safety and alignment priorities for its large language models, shifting the company toward a 2027 timeline despite its own June filing. This divergence reflects Anthropic's faster progress through the IPO process and stronger revenue trajectory, while OpenAI weighs public-market scrutiny. Key upcoming catalysts include Anthropic's final prospectus release and any shifts in AI safety regulations that could delay either timeline, though sudden acceleration by OpenAI remains a low-probability wildcard.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$366,812结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETAnthropic's advance toward an October Nasdaq listing, backed by its June confidential S-1 filing and reports of mid-October marketing, drives the 94% market-implied probability it will IPO before OpenAI. Recent statements from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman explicitly ruled out a 2026 debut, citing safety and alignment priorities for its large language models, shifting the company toward a 2027 timeline despite its own June filing. This divergence reflects Anthropic's faster progress through the IPO process and stronger revenue trajectory, while OpenAI weighs public-market scrutiny. Key upcoming catalysts include Anthropic's final prospectus release and any shifts in AI safety regulations that could delay either timeline, though sudden acceleration by OpenAI remains a low-probability wildcard.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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