With multiple outcomes trading at 50% implied probability, trader consensus highlights intense uncertainty around which AI lab will rank third in agent capabilities by end of November. The competitive landscape features rapid iteration among established players like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google alongside specialists such as Moonshot and DeepSeek, driven by advances in large language models, tool-use integration, and autonomous task execution. Key swing factors include upcoming capability benchmarks, model releases, and real-world deployment results that could elevate or sideline contenders. The wisdom of crowds in this market underscores how quickly technical milestones or competitive gaps can reshape positioning before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Moonshot 38%
OpenAI 17%
SpaceXAI 13%
Mistral 12.9%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Moonshot
38%
OpenAI
17%
SpaceXAI
13%
Mistral
13%
阿里巴巴
11%
英伟达
11%
百度
11%
美团
10%
Meta
10%
字节跳动
10%
亚马逊
10%
谷歌
9%
Z.ai
8%
MiniMax
4%
Anthropic
3%
DeepSeek
1%
微软
1%
腾讯
1%
小米
10%
Moonshot 38%
OpenAI 17%
SpaceXAI 13%
Mistral 12.9%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Moonshot
$426 交易量
38%
OpenAI
$265 交易量
17%
SpaceXAI
$187 交易量
13%
Mistral
$129 交易量
13%
阿里巴巴
$87 交易量
11%
英伟达
$87 交易量
11%
百度
$87 交易量
11%
美团
$69 交易量
10%
Meta
$87 交易量
10%
字节跳动
$69 交易量
10%
亚马逊
$87 交易量
10%
谷歌
$87 交易量
9%
Z.ai
$87 交易量
8%
MiniMax
$89 交易量
4%
Anthropic
$452 交易量
3%
DeepSeek
$87 交易量
1%
微软
$178 交易量
1%
腾讯
$87 交易量
1%
小米
$104 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".With multiple outcomes trading at 50% implied probability, trader consensus highlights intense uncertainty around which AI lab will rank third in agent capabilities by end of November. The competitive landscape features rapid iteration among established players like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google alongside specialists such as Moonshot and DeepSeek, driven by advances in large language models, tool-use integration, and autonomous task execution. Key swing factors include upcoming capability benchmarks, model releases, and real-world deployment results that could elevate or sideline contenders. The wisdom of crowds in this market underscores how quickly technical milestones or competitive gaps can reshape positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
交易量
$2,746结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".With multiple outcomes trading at 50% implied probability, trader consensus highlights intense uncertainty around which AI lab will rank third in agent capabilities by end of November. The competitive landscape features rapid iteration among established players like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google alongside specialists such as Moonshot and DeepSeek, driven by advances in large language models, tool-use integration, and autonomous task execution. Key swing factors include upcoming capability benchmarks, model releases, and real-world deployment results that could elevate or sideline contenders. The wisdom of crowds in this market underscores how quickly technical milestones or competitive gaps can reshape positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$2,746结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ETWith multiple outcomes trading at 50% implied probability, trader consensus highlights intense uncertainty around which AI lab will rank third in agent capabilities by end of November. The competitive landscape features rapid iteration among established players like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google alongside specialists such as Moonshot and DeepSeek, driven by advances in large language models, tool-use integration, and autonomous task execution. Key swing factors include upcoming capability benchmarks, model releases, and real-world deployment results that could elevate or sideline contenders. The wisdom of crowds in this market underscores how quickly technical milestones or competitive gaps can reshape positioning before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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