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海湾国家会在3月7日前袭击伊朗吗?

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海湾国家会在3月7日前袭击伊朗吗?

2% chance
Polymarket

$1,580,573 交易量

2% chance
Polymarket

$1,580,573 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an a listed country's missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by a listed country's ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$1,580,573
结束日期
Mar 7, 2026
市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 12:31 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an a listed country's missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by a listed country's ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an a listed country's missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by a listed country's ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$1,580,573
结束日期
Mar 7, 2026
市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 12:31 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an a listed country's missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by a listed country's ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

警惕外部链接哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"海湾国家会在3月7日前袭击伊朗吗?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "到3月7日,海湾国家会对伊朗发动打击吗?" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 2¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 2% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "海湾国家会在3月7日前袭击伊朗吗?" has generated $1.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "海湾国家会在3月7日前袭击伊朗吗?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "海湾国家会在3月7日前袭击伊朗吗?" is "到3月7日,海湾国家会对伊朗发动打击吗?" at just 2%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "海湾国家会在3月7日前袭击伊朗吗?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.