The near-certainty of first-round upsets in the NCAA Tournament drives the 86.5% implied probability that no bracket survives perfectly, as historical data shows zero perfect ESPN or Yahoo entries since 2016 amid 32 volatile games. This year's bracket amplifies risks with marquee 5-12 clashes like Saint Mary's vs. Grand Canyon, where the underdog Antelopes boast top-15 efficiency on a late hot streak, and 6-11 matchups featuring surging NC State over fading Texas Tech. Injuries further cloud chalk favorites, such as Auburn's missing shooters against Yale's elite defense, while chalk-heavy top seeds like UConn face tested mid-majors. Trader consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in routine chaos over flawless prognostication.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if anyone completes a perfect bracket for the First Round (Round of 64) of the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament on any of the following websites per the rules of the respective site: ESPN, NCAA.com, CBS Sports, Yahoo Fantasy, Fox Sports, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, Kalshi. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A perfect bracket is defined exclusively as a bracket that selects the correct outcome of every game during the First Round (Round of 64) of the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament. A perfect bracket only qualifies for a completed First Round. Perfect brackets for incomplete or partially completed First Rounds will not be considered. No form of ‘second chance’ bracket will be considered. Only brackets that can be verified as having been submitted before the start of the first Round of 64 game will be considered.
If the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament First Round is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from ESPN, NCAA, CBS Sports, Yahoo Fantasy, Fox Sports, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, or Kalshi.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anyone completes a perfect bracket for the First Round (Round of 64) of the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament on any of the following websites per the rules of the respective site: ESPN, NCAA.com, CBS Sports, Yahoo Fantasy, Fox Sports, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, Kalshi. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A perfect bracket is defined exclusively as a bracket that selects the correct outcome of every game during the First Round (Round of 64) of the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament. A perfect bracket only qualifies for a completed First Round. Perfect brackets for incomplete or partially completed First Rounds will not be considered. No form of ‘second chance’ bracket will be considered. Only brackets that can be verified as having been submitted before the start of the first Round of 64 game will be considered.
If the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament First Round is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from ESPN, NCAA, CBS Sports, Yahoo Fantasy, Fox Sports, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, or Kalshi.This market will resolve to “Yes” if anyone completes a perfect bracket for the First Round (Round of 64) of the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament on any of the following websites per the rules of the respective site: ESPN, NCAA.com, CBS Sports, Yahoo Fantasy, Fox Sports, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, Kalshi. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A perfect bracket is defined exclusively as a bracket that selects the correct outcome of every game during the First Round (Round of 64) of the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament. A perfect bracket only qualifies for a completed First Round. Perfect brackets for incomplete or partially completed First Rounds will not be considered. No form of ‘second chance’ bracket will be considered. Only brackets that can be verified as having been submitted before the start of the first Round of 64 game will be considered.
If the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament First Round is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from ESPN, NCAA, CBS Sports, Yahoo Fantasy, Fox Sports, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, or Kalshi.
A perfect bracket is defined exclusively as a bracket that selects the correct outcome of every game during the First Round (Round of 64) of the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament. A perfect bracket only qualifies for a completed First Round. Perfect brackets for incomplete or partially completed First Rounds will not be considered. No form of ‘second chance’ bracket will be considered. Only brackets that can be verified as having been submitted before the start of the first Round of 64 game will be considered.
If the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament First Round is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from ESPN, NCAA, CBS Sports, Yahoo Fantasy, Fox Sports, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, or Kalshi.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$165市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if anyone completes a perfect bracket for the First Round (Round of 64) of the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament on any of the following websites per the rules of the respective site: ESPN, NCAA.com, CBS Sports, Yahoo Fantasy, Fox Sports, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, Kalshi. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A perfect bracket is defined exclusively as a bracket that selects the correct outcome of every game during the First Round (Round of 64) of the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament. A perfect bracket only qualifies for a completed First Round. Perfect brackets for incomplete or partially completed First Rounds will not be considered. No form of ‘second chance’ bracket will be considered. Only brackets that can be verified as having been submitted before the start of the first Round of 64 game will be considered.
If the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament First Round is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from ESPN, NCAA, CBS Sports, Yahoo Fantasy, Fox Sports, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, or Kalshi.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anyone completes a perfect bracket for the First Round (Round of 64) of the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament on any of the following websites per the rules of the respective site: ESPN, NCAA.com, CBS Sports, Yahoo Fantasy, Fox Sports, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, Kalshi. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A perfect bracket is defined exclusively as a bracket that selects the correct outcome of every game during the First Round (Round of 64) of the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament. A perfect bracket only qualifies for a completed First Round. Perfect brackets for incomplete or partially completed First Rounds will not be considered. No form of ‘second chance’ bracket will be considered. Only brackets that can be verified as having been submitted before the start of the first Round of 64 game will be considered.
If the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament First Round is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from ESPN, NCAA, CBS Sports, Yahoo Fantasy, Fox Sports, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, or Kalshi.This market will resolve to “Yes” if anyone completes a perfect bracket for the First Round (Round of 64) of the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament on any of the following websites per the rules of the respective site: ESPN, NCAA.com, CBS Sports, Yahoo Fantasy, Fox Sports, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, Kalshi. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A perfect bracket is defined exclusively as a bracket that selects the correct outcome of every game during the First Round (Round of 64) of the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament. A perfect bracket only qualifies for a completed First Round. Perfect brackets for incomplete or partially completed First Rounds will not be considered. No form of ‘second chance’ bracket will be considered. Only brackets that can be verified as having been submitted before the start of the first Round of 64 game will be considered.
If the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament First Round is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from ESPN, NCAA, CBS Sports, Yahoo Fantasy, Fox Sports, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, or Kalshi.
A perfect bracket is defined exclusively as a bracket that selects the correct outcome of every game during the First Round (Round of 64) of the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament. A perfect bracket only qualifies for a completed First Round. Perfect brackets for incomplete or partially completed First Rounds will not be considered. No form of ‘second chance’ bracket will be considered. Only brackets that can be verified as having been submitted before the start of the first Round of 64 game will be considered.
If the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament First Round is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from ESPN, NCAA, CBS Sports, Yahoo Fantasy, Fox Sports, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, or Kalshi.
交易量
$165市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certainty of first-round upsets in the NCAA Tournament drives the 86.5% implied probability that no bracket survives perfectly, as historical data shows zero perfect ESPN or Yahoo entries since 2016 amid 32 volatile games. This year's bracket amplifies risks with marquee 5-12 clashes like Saint Mary's vs. Grand Canyon, where the underdog Antelopes boast top-15 efficiency on a late hot streak, and 6-11 matchups featuring surging NC State over fading Texas Tech. Injuries further cloud chalk favorites, such as Auburn's missing shooters against Yale's elite defense, while chalk-heavy top seeds like UConn face tested mid-majors. Trader consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in routine chaos over flawless prognostication.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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