US-Iran diplomatic engagement remains the central driver, shaped by the February 2026 US-Israel military operation that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and elevated Mojtaba Khamenei to the position. President Trump has publicly signaled openness to a direct conversation or meeting with the new leader if a peace or nuclear framework advances, citing improving bilateral tone despite stalled elements. Iranian officials have countered with calls for realism, emphasizing asset releases and core demands while downplaying summit prospects. Ongoing indirect talks mediated by Qatar, periodic ceasefire pauses, and mutual threats continue to influence timelines. Key upcoming catalysts include negotiation deadlines, asset or sanctions adjustments, and any formal diplomatic channels that could enable or preclude direct contact before the resolution date.