Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to House turnout landing in the 120-130 million range because recent special election data and generic ballot trends show mixed enthusiasm levels between the parties amid a Republican White House. Narrow congressional majorities and ongoing redistricting efforts in key states keep mobilization efforts competitive without a clear national surge in participation. Historical midterm patterns, where turnout typically falls 10-20 points below presidential years, anchor expectations around these totals while uncertainty over economic conditions, candidate recruitment, and primary outcomes through the summer prevents any single bracket from pulling ahead decisively. Developments such as stronger-than-expected polling shifts or coordinated get-out-the-vote pushes in battleground districts could separate the leading ranges by altering base voter participation rates.