Jerry Carl holds a strong lead in the AL-01 Republican primary market due to his prior service as the district's U.S. representative from 2021 to 2025 and his first-place finish with 40% in the non-binding May 2026 primary, ahead of Rhett Marques at 31%. Redistricting finalized in May altered the district lines and voided earlier results, prompting some candidates to shift districts while leaving Carl and Marques as the primary contenders for the August 11 special primary. A June poll showed Carl ahead 25% to 9% among likely voters, with over half undecided, underscoring his name recognition and geographic advantage in populous areas. Marques has narrowed gaps through stronger recent fundraising and endorsements but trails in head-to-head metrics. Minor candidates remain fragmented with low single-digit support.