Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell leads trader consensus at 68.5% implied probability to win Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, reflecting his 2024 victory over Cori Bush and strong incumbency advantages in the heavily Democratic St. Louis-based district. A recent HIT Strategies poll commissioned by Bush's campaign (February 19-23, released mid-April) shows them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely primary voters, with Bush holding higher favorability (52%-45%); however, traders appear skeptical of the internal survey's reliability, prioritizing Bell's prosecutorial background, local establishment support, and prior defeat of Bush despite heavy outside spending. Fundraising edges and key voting blocs like moderates versus progressives will shape the closely watched rematch.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডনতুন
নতুন
Aug 4, 2026
Wesley Bell
69%
Cori Bush
31%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 4, 2026
Wesley Bell
$2,925 Vol.
69%
Cori Bush
$2,474 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell leads trader consensus at 68.5% implied probability to win Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, reflecting his 2024 victory over Cori Bush and strong incumbency advantages in the heavily Democratic St. Louis-based district. A recent HIT Strategies poll commissioned by Bush's campaign (February 19-23, released mid-April) shows them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely primary voters, with Bush holding higher favorability (52%-45%); however, traders appear skeptical of the internal survey's reliability, prioritizing Bell's prosecutorial background, local establishment support, and prior defeat of Bush despite heavy outside spending. Fundraising edges and key voting blocs like moderates versus progressives will shape the closely watched rematch.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$5,399শেষ তারিখ
Aug 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell leads trader consensus at 68.5% implied probability to win Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, reflecting his 2024 victory over Cori Bush and strong incumbency advantages in the heavily Democratic St. Louis-based district. A recent HIT Strategies poll commissioned by Bush's campaign (February 19-23, released mid-April) shows them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely primary voters, with Bush holding higher favorability (52%-45%); however, traders appear skeptical of the internal survey's reliability, prioritizing Bell's prosecutorial background, local establishment support, and prior defeat of Bush despite heavy outside spending. Fundraising edges and key voting blocs like moderates versus progressives will shape the closely watched rematch.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
ভলিউম
$5,399শেষ তারিখ
Aug 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell leads trader consensus at 68.5% implied probability to win Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, reflecting his 2024 victory over Cori Bush and strong incumbency advantages in the heavily Democratic St. Louis-based district. A recent HIT Strategies poll commissioned by Bush's campaign (February 19-23, released mid-April) shows them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely primary voters, with Bush holding higher favorability (52%-45%); however, traders appear skeptical of the internal survey's reliability, prioritizing Bell's prosecutorial background, local establishment support, and prior defeat of Bush despite heavy outside spending. Fundraising edges and key voting blocs like moderates versus progressives will shape the closely watched rematch.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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