Trader consensus on Polymarket positions a 1.15–1.19ºC global surface air temperature anomaly above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline) as the leading outcome at 46% implied probability for April 2026, reflecting March's fourth-warmest reading at 1.48ºC (Copernicus ERA5 data, released April 10) amid near-record sea surface temperatures of 20.97ºC. Elevated ocean heat content and ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA's April 9 update—sustain high anomalies without La Niña cooling, though seasonal models project modest moderation from March peaks. The adjacent 1.20–1.24ºC bin at 34% accounts for potential persistence, with full resolution hinging on the mid-May Copernicus bulletin amid inherent forecast uncertainty from evolving atmospheric patterns.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 46%
1.20–1.24ºC 33%
1.25–1.29ºC 13%
1.10–1.14ºC 8%
$135,739 Vol.
$135,739 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
8%
1.15–1.19ºC
46%
1.20–1.24ºC
33%
1.25–1.29ºC
13%
>1.29ºC
3%
1.15–1.19ºC 46%
1.20–1.24ºC 33%
1.25–1.29ºC 13%
1.10–1.14ºC 8%
$135,739 Vol.
$135,739 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$30,152 Vol.
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,508 Vol.
8%
1.15–1.19ºC
$16,080 Vol.
46%
1.20–1.24ºC
$19,355 Vol.
33%
1.25–1.29ºC
$29,392 Vol.
13%
>1.29ºC
$16,253 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions a 1.15–1.19ºC global surface air temperature anomaly above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline) as the leading outcome at 46% implied probability for April 2026, reflecting March's fourth-warmest reading at 1.48ºC (Copernicus ERA5 data, released April 10) amid near-record sea surface temperatures of 20.97ºC. Elevated ocean heat content and ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA's April 9 update—sustain high anomalies without La Niña cooling, though seasonal models project modest moderation from March peaks. The adjacent 1.20–1.24ºC bin at 34% accounts for potential persistence, with full resolution hinging on the mid-May Copernicus bulletin amid inherent forecast uncertainty from evolving atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
ভলিউম
$135,739শেষ তারিখ
May 10, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions a 1.15–1.19ºC global surface air temperature anomaly above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline) as the leading outcome at 46% implied probability for April 2026, reflecting March's fourth-warmest reading at 1.48ºC (Copernicus ERA5 data, released April 10) amid near-record sea surface temperatures of 20.97ºC. Elevated ocean heat content and ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA's April 9 update—sustain high anomalies without La Niña cooling, though seasonal models project modest moderation from March peaks. The adjacent 1.20–1.24ºC bin at 34% accounts for potential persistence, with full resolution hinging on the mid-May Copernicus bulletin amid inherent forecast uncertainty from evolving atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ভলিউম
$135,739শেষ তারিখ
May 10, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions a 1.15–1.19ºC global surface air temperature anomaly above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline) as the leading outcome at 46% implied probability for April 2026, reflecting March's fourth-warmest reading at 1.48ºC (Copernicus ERA5 data, released April 10) amid near-record sea surface temperatures of 20.97ºC. Elevated ocean heat content and ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA's April 9 update—sustain high anomalies without La Niña cooling, though seasonal models project modest moderation from March peaks. The adjacent 1.20–1.24ºC bin at 34% accounts for potential persistence, with full resolution hinging on the mid-May Copernicus bulletin amid inherent forecast uncertainty from evolving atmospheric patterns.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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