Recent moderation in Brazil’s IPCA, which fell to 4.44% year-over-year in July 2026 from 4.64% in June and entered the central bank’s 1.5–4.5% target band, underpins the concentration of Polymarket probabilities in the 4.50–5.49% range. Market-implied odds reflect the Focus survey’s latest 5.01% consensus for full-year 2026 alongside Banco Central do Brasil projections near 5.1%, tempered by cooling food and transport prices. Key swing factors include the intensifying El Niño’s potential to lift food inflation later in the year, residual effects from earlier oil shocks, and fiscal stimulus supporting demand. With the Selic rate now at 14.00% after successive cuts, traders weigh whether further disinflation through year-end can pull the annual print below 5.00% or whether persistent expectations and weather risks keep it anchored near the current midpoint.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড5.00-5.49% 37.5%
4.50-4.99% 29.8%
5.50-5.99% 21.9%
6.00-6.49% 5.4%
$103,793 Vol.
$103,793 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
1%
3.00-3.49%
<1%
3.50-3.99%
2%
4.00-4.49%
5%
4.50-4.99%
30%
5.00-5.49%
38%
5.50-5.99%
22%
6.00-6.49%
5%
6.50-6.99%
<1%
7.00%+
<1%
5.00-5.49% 37.5%
4.50-4.99% 29.8%
5.50-5.99% 21.9%
6.00-6.49% 5.4%
$103,793 Vol.
$103,793 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
$6,378 Vol.
1%
3.00-3.49%
$6,260 Vol.
<1%
3.50-3.99%
$13,738 Vol.
2%
4.00-4.49%
$14,711 Vol.
5%
4.50-4.99%
$17,274 Vol.
30%
5.00-5.49%
$15,262 Vol.
38%
5.50-5.99%
$10,787 Vol.
22%
6.00-6.49%
$7,422 Vol.
5%
6.50-6.99%
$6,934 Vol.
<1%
7.00%+
$5,026 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent moderation in Brazil’s IPCA, which fell to 4.44% year-over-year in July 2026 from 4.64% in June and entered the central bank’s 1.5–4.5% target band, underpins the concentration of Polymarket probabilities in the 4.50–5.49% range. Market-implied odds reflect the Focus survey’s latest 5.01% consensus for full-year 2026 alongside Banco Central do Brasil projections near 5.1%, tempered by cooling food and transport prices. Key swing factors include the intensifying El Niño’s potential to lift food inflation later in the year, residual effects from earlier oil shocks, and fiscal stimulus supporting demand. With the Selic rate now at 14.00% after successive cuts, traders weigh whether further disinflation through year-end can pull the annual print below 5.00% or whether persistent expectations and weather risks keep it anchored near the current midpoint.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
ভলিউম
$103,793শেষ তারিখ
Jan 12, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETরেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent moderation in Brazil’s IPCA, which fell to 4.44% year-over-year in July 2026 from 4.64% in June and entered the central bank’s 1.5–4.5% target band, underpins the concentration of Polymarket probabilities in the 4.50–5.49% range. Market-implied odds reflect the Focus survey’s latest 5.01% consensus for full-year 2026 alongside Banco Central do Brasil projections near 5.1%, tempered by cooling food and transport prices. Key swing factors include the intensifying El Niño’s potential to lift food inflation later in the year, residual effects from earlier oil shocks, and fiscal stimulus supporting demand. With the Selic rate now at 14.00% after successive cuts, traders weigh whether further disinflation through year-end can pull the annual print below 5.00% or whether persistent expectations and weather risks keep it anchored near the current midpoint.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
ভলিউম
$103,793শেষ তারিখ
Jan 12, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETরেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...Recent moderation in Brazil’s IPCA, which fell to 4.44% year-over-year in July 2026 from 4.64% in June and entered the central bank’s 1.5–4.5% target band, underpins the concentration of Polymarket probabilities in the 4.50–5.49% range. Market-implied odds reflect the Focus survey’s latest 5.01% consensus for full-year 2026 alongside Banco Central do Brasil projections near 5.1%, tempered by cooling food and transport prices. Key swing factors include the intensifying El Niño’s potential to lift food inflation later in the year, residual effects from earlier oil shocks, and fiscal stimulus supporting demand. With the Selic rate now at 14.00% after successive cuts, traders weigh whether further disinflation through year-end can pull the annual print below 5.00% or whether persistent expectations and weather risks keep it anchored near the current midpoint.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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