California's 6th Congressional District, redrawn under Proposition 50 to favor Democrats with a D+8 Partisan Voter Index and 52.6% Democratic presidential vote in 2024, drives trader consensus toward a 91.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner. The open seat after Ami Bera's shift to CA-03 features five Democrats—Lauren Babb Tomlinson, Thien Ho, Richard Pan, Martha Guerrero, and Tyler Vandenberg—competing alongside Republican Kevin Kiley in the June 2 top-two primary, with ratings from Cook Political Report as Solid Democratic and others Likely Democratic. Kiley leads fundraising but faces a crowded field likely advancing two Democrats to the November general. Challenges include Kiley securing a top-two spot for a GOP-Dem matchup, late scandals, or turnout shifts, though structural leans make these unlikely.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,406 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th Congressional District, redrawn under Proposition 50 to favor Democrats with a D+8 Partisan Voter Index and 52.6% Democratic presidential vote in 2024, drives trader consensus toward a 91.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner. The open seat after Ami Bera's shift to CA-03 features five Democrats—Lauren Babb Tomlinson, Thien Ho, Richard Pan, Martha Guerrero, and Tyler Vandenberg—competing alongside Republican Kevin Kiley in the June 2 top-two primary, with ratings from Cook Political Report as Solid Democratic and others Likely Democratic. Kiley leads fundraising but faces a crowded field likely advancing two Democrats to the November general. Challenges include Kiley securing a top-two spot for a GOP-Dem matchup, late scandals, or turnout shifts, though structural leans make these unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
ভলিউম
$6,406শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th Congressional District, redrawn under Proposition 50 to favor Democrats with a D+8 Partisan Voter Index and 52.6% Democratic presidential vote in 2024, drives trader consensus toward a 91.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner. The open seat after Ami Bera's shift to CA-03 features five Democrats—Lauren Babb Tomlinson, Thien Ho, Richard Pan, Martha Guerrero, and Tyler Vandenberg—competing alongside Republican Kevin Kiley in the June 2 top-two primary, with ratings from Cook Political Report as Solid Democratic and others Likely Democratic. Kiley leads fundraising but faces a crowded field likely advancing two Democrats to the November general. Challenges include Kiley securing a top-two spot for a GOP-Dem matchup, late scandals, or turnout shifts, though structural leans make these unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ভলিউম
$6,406শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 6th Congressional District, redrawn under Proposition 50 to favor Democrats with a D+8 Partisan Voter Index and 52.6% Democratic presidential vote in 2024, drives trader consensus toward a 91.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner. The open seat after Ami Bera's shift to CA-03 features five Democrats—Lauren Babb Tomlinson, Thien Ho, Richard Pan, Martha Guerrero, and Tyler Vandenberg—competing alongside Republican Kevin Kiley in the June 2 top-two primary, with ratings from Cook Political Report as Solid Democratic and others Likely Democratic. Kiley leads fundraising but faces a crowded field likely advancing two Democrats to the November general. Challenges include Kiley securing a top-two spot for a GOP-Dem matchup, late scandals, or turnout shifts, though structural leans make these unlikely.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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